England v Italy: For England a dreary draw wouldn't be so bad for starters at the World Cup

England’s best World Cups have begun that way; but then again, so did the last one

Steven Gerrard scores for England during the 1-1 draw with the United States in their opening game of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa (Getty Images)

Should England open with a turgid draw tomorrow history suggests they should be encouraged. Their most successful World Cups began that way.

The 1966 triumph began with England unable to break down a Uruguayan team who barely left their half. “This was a bad English team,” declared Vittorio Pozzo, coach to Italy’s 1934 and 1938 champions, after the goalless stalemate.

The 1990 semi-final run started with a 1-1 draw against Jack Charlton’s Republic of Ireland so dire La Gazzetta dello Sport stated: “No football, we’re English.” A verdict closer to home was even more forthright: “The Sun speaks its mind. Bring them home.”

In theory what England cannot afford to do tonight is lose. Only 15 per cent of teams defeated in their opening game have reached the second stage, and less than nine per cent since the tournament was expanded to 32 teams in 1998. England, however, progressed on the two occasions they lost their opening match, in 1962 to Hungary and 1986 to Portugal.

Only twice have England failed to progress from the group stage. In 1950 only the group winners went through; though England began by beating Chile they subsequently lost to the United States, infamously, and Spain. Eight years later, they began with a draw against the Soviet Union, finished equal second with them, then lost a play-off.

The best beginning was in 1982 when Bryan Robson scored after 27 seconds to put Ron Greenwood’s team en route to a 3-1 win over France. More recently England have begun slowly, with a 1-1 draw with Sweden in Japan in 2002, a leaden 1-0 win over Paraguay in Germany, and the 1-1 draw with the US in South Africa, which ultimately sent them to face a vibrant young German side in the second round. Maybe a turgid start is not such a good omen.

Bryan Robson gave England the perfect start in 1982 with a goal after 27 seconds against France (Getty Images)

Green is the colour

The sight of the Manaus pitch apparently being sprayed with green paint will have stirred memories for Brazil’s most famous footballer. When Pele made his debut for New York Cosmos, 39 years ago tomorrow, it was at a ground that was little more than a parks pitch. At half-time Pele refused to go out for the second half as there was “a green fungus” on his legs. Cosmos officials had to reveal they had doused the pitch with a green paint-and-water mix that morning to hide the bare patches.

Lies, damn lies and statistics

Aided by fumbling goalkeeping and a very generous referee Brazil got there in the end on Thursday night, but after 25 minutes things were not looking good. At which point, on screen, came the statistics: Possession, Brazil 68 per cent, Croatia 32 per cent; passes completed, Brazil 154, Croatia 42; passing accuracy, Brazil 82 per cent, Croatia 60 per cent. All meaningless. The only statistic that mattered was in the top left-hand corner: Brazil 0 Croatia 1.

Metrics have a part to play in understanding modern football, but the level of sophistication needed to interpret the data usefully requires a degree in mathematics.