England must capitalise on Croatia's natural post-World Cup decline in Nations League meeting

Almost every other mid-ranking international team who has overachieved in a big way at a tournament has then gone on to miss the next one

At first glance, it looked like the inversion of the order that was established at the World Cup. Spain, miserable, confused and spent, 6. Croatia, heroic, historic semi-finalists, 0.

But that dramatic defeat should be less shocking than that.

There is a famous history of international teams who reached a peak no-one expected them to, and then found that when they tried to scale the same mountain months later, that they simply had nothing left in their legs. You can call it a hangover or a comedown, but it should not imply any moral judgement against Croatia or any other team. After fighting to achieve that much, it is perfectly natural to relax.

That is why Croatia went into their first Nations League game, less than two months after the World Cup final in Moscow, with other things than League A survival on their minds. Coach Zlatko Dalic had made very clear after Russia that his priority would be gearing the team back up for Euro 2020, in two years time. Not for immediate competition against Spain and England, when his players and country were still coming to terms with their achievement.

So when Croatia went to Elche to play Spain last month, they were not exactly fired by the pride and sense of history that drove the team to the World Cup final. Even with Luka Modric, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic in the side, they barely put up a fight. When Luis Enrique’s Spain – desperate to prove a point – took the lead, Croatia simply folded. They lost the game 6-0.

It felt like a sign that Croatia were not too fussed about the Nations League. And when Dalic was asked at his pre-match press conference in Rijeka on Thursday night, he did not burst with his enthusiasm for the competition. “I don’t think it’s a bad idea,” he said of the competition. “But the Spain game was very soon after the World Cup. The players were tired. Rest is important for all players. And clubs are asking maximum effort from the start from every player, which is not easy for them. But the competition itself is a good idea.”

It was a long night for Ivan Rakitic and his Croatian teammates (AFP/Getty Images)

Dalic’s plan is to get his players firing again for the next Euros, but even that might be ambitious. Because the reasons why they were so flat in Elche last month are not unique to them. Almost every other mid-ranking international team who has overachieved in a big way at a tournament has then gone on to miss the next one.

Remember Greece, a far less talented team than this Croatia side, but who went a step further to win Euro 2004 in Portugal under Ottmar Hitzfeld? They could not rediscover their motivation, after the greatest moment in modern Greek sporting history, and failed to qualify for the 2006 World Cup in Germany.

Or Denmark, the European Champions of 1992, and perhaps a side closer to Croatia’s profile given the technical level of their players. Even they could not raise themselves to qualify for USA 1994 despite still having Peter Schmeichel and the Laudrup brothers.

Or, back in history, Czechoslovakia, who after their heroics at the European Championship of 1976 could not qualify for the World Cup in Argentina two years later.

It just goes to show that Croatia are in illustrious company for failing to rouse themselves after such a historic performance. Their dip is natural, and not a weakness. England will have to try to make the most of it tonight.