Bookies are right – old enemy won't win anything with kids

Mature England should prove to Germany today that you can't beat experience and, in the city of roses, Capello should emerge smelling sweetly

(reuters)

The bookmakers have England as clear favourites to reach the World Cup quarter-final here today and for once there is more than patriotic betting patterns behind the odds making. What Germany's coach Joachim "Jorgi" Löw referred to as the latest chapter in a long book opens at a time when England may just be at a more mature stage of development than the old enemy.

Long-term prospects for each country looked to be contrasting ones in Sweden a year ago in the final of the European Under-21 final, as a German side inspired by Mesut Ozil beat Stuart Pearce's youngsters 4-0. At that point, the Germans were European champions at the three under-age levels and since then Löw has done brilliantly in revamping the side after third place at the last World Cup and then a gallant runners-up spot at Euro 2008.

Manuel Neuer, Jérôme Boateng, Sami Khedira and Ozil have all gone into the first team here (which only James Milner has done for England) and Löw says it all offers "very promising prospects for the next five to 10 years". It is the next few hours that count, however, and neither he nor his players have made any secret of their admiration for England's more experienced campaigners. Additionally, Germany have been deprived of their captain Michael Ballack – so have England, but Ballack was a more talismanic figure than Rio Ferdinand – and may now lose Bastian Schweinsteiger, whom Löw described on Friday as "the heart of the team".

There can be no room for complacency, but that is hardly a defect likely to be found in a dressing room watched over by Fabio Capello. His justifiable complaint after the Algeria game concerned the exact opposite; the fact that England's players had suddenly reverted to the timid creatures unable to transfer the ability and confidence shown on the training pitch and in the Premier League on to an international stage.

Victory over Slovenia, while hardly cause for a national holiday, demonstrated significant improvement. There is therefore little reason to change the side. Milner was the big plus, showing the character after his hapless start against the USA to match Capello's faith in him, and it will encourage England that Germany are uncertain about the form and fitness of their potential left-backs. Holger Badstuber was dropped after the defeat by Serbia and Boateng, bound for Manchester City, has been having treatment since the victory over Ghana.

Milner, with Glen Johnson behind him, can take advantage, and Jermain Defoe's pace ought to worry the lanky centre-half Per Mertesacker, who has endured a couple of poor games. That was presumably what Capello had in mind when asked about whether Defoe would keep his place; he replied that it might depend on who the Germans picked. Löw was obliging enough to make clear on Friday that: "He will play an important role. The English will put many high balls into the box."

Arne Friedrich, now up to 75 caps, will be alongside Mertesacker and has been rescuing him when necessary. What the Germans will be planning further forward, as the USA did, will be to use the space left behind England's full-backs when they go forward. In Lukas Podolski on the left and Thomas Müller on the right they have players who could exploit that.

Despite Löw's criticism after the narrow 1-0 win over Ghana that earned them top place in the group, there is no reason to believe that Germany will change their system either, so Ozil, with responsibility thrust upon him at a young age, will be the key man in the 4-2-3-1 formation. He will need to be carefully policed by Gareth Barry, the most defensive English midfielder, which should allow Frank Lampard greater possibilities for pushing forward than he has seen recently. England must have studied the goal with which Serbia unexpectedly beat the Germans: a cross from the right, headed down when Mertesacker was beaten at the far post for an onrushing midfielder to score. It was a move made for the Chelsea Lampard on a day when Capello hopes his leading men can reprise their club form.

Steven Gerrard (pictured left), who has been one of England's better performers, will drift in from his flank again, allowing Ashley Cole the room to run at Philipp Lahm, the Germany captain, who must also be denied space to begin his own team's build-up from the back. Gerrard's other function will be to link up with Wayne Rooney, which worked so successfully through most of the qualifying campaign but has been more hit-and-miss here.

As of course has Rooney, who was supposed to be imposing himself on the tournament as Lionel Messi has. The feeling is he is about to explode one way or another. Here in the "city of roses", birthplace of JRR Tolkien, it is imperative that the explosion is of the positive football variety if Capello is to come up smelling sweetly and emerge as Lord of the Rings.