Champions League final preview: Tottenham hold the initiative in tactical battle with Liverpool

Few teams at the top level of world football right now are as malleable as Spurs, and it means Mauricio Pochettino holds a power to surprise which Jurgen Klopp does not

We already know what to expect from Liverpool on Saturday night. The 4-3-3; Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold playing like they desperately need to create something, anything, right now; Mane-Firmino-Salah; the enormous frame of Virgil van Dijk, the closest thing to a football defence constructed around actual load-bearing masonry; Alisson’s feet, Henderson’s lungs, Fabinho’s brain.

Jurgen Klopp’s creation is clear for all to see, and so ahead of the Champions League final really the only mystery left is how Tottenham will try to stop it. The game’s tactical tangles will all unravel as a consequence of Tottenham’s shape: specifically, whether Pochettino chooses to build his team on a back four or a back five.

A quick history lesson might steer us towards the answer. Back in September, Liverpool visited Wembley in the Premier League and dismantled a Tottenham team set up in a 4-3-1-2. Liverpool only won 2-1, but despite Spurs’s dominance of the ball Liverpool were clearly the superior side, with a prestigious xG win of 3.01 to Tottenham’s 0.79.

That day, Pochettino deployed Eric Dier to the right of his midfield trio and Harry Winks to the left in order to shut off the full-back flow that Liverpool’s forwards rely on – and to an extent, it worked. Robertson had more touches than any other Liverpool player but rarely in dangerous positions, while Alexander-Arnold was unusually quiet. Yet Spurs still found themselves hopelessly open through the centre whenever they turned over possession, and Liverpool created several clear chances on the counter-attack. The 4-3-1-2 had strong limbs but a flimsy heart.

Perhaps that’s why, in the return at Anfield in March, Pochettino tried a back five. It helped contain Liverpool’s front three and stemmed breaks through the centre, and although Liverpool again won 2-1, it was a much more even contest (Liverpool’s xG of 1.09 was matched by Tottenham’s 1.05). However, Pochettino’s use of wing-backs, instead of full-backs and wide midfielders, left Alexander-Arnold and Robertson with more space, especially in deeper positions, and on several occasions they gave Alisson an easy escape route when Spurs pressed high. The 5-3-2 had a strong heart but flimsy limbs.

For Tottenham, protecting the centre of the pitch while putting pressure on Liverpool’s full-backs will again be a challenge, but perhaps the semi-final against Ajax offered a solution. After struggling with a back-five in the first leg in north London, losing 1-0, the 4-2-3-1 used in the second leg in Amsterdam proved far more effective. Against Liverpool it would certainly offer more balance, and using two from the trio of Son Heung-min, Lucas Moura and Christian Eriksen in wide positions would force Robertson and Alexander-Arnold to at least consider that bombing forward might carry inherent risk.

If he decides to use a back-four, there are other questions which Pochettino must answer. Does he use Eriksen deep in a double-pivot to help evade Liverpool’s press, or play him high and wide on the right to supply the forward line? If further forwards, then – in a question no one expected to be crucial before a Champions League final – will it be Winks or Victor Wanyama in midfield? Should Harry Kane start on the pitch or on the bench?

The same could be asked of Lucas: it feels logical he should play, given his game-saving hat-trick against Ajax, yet this could be a long night and substitutes will play a vital role. Pochettino may not want to play all his cards at once.

Tottenham vs Liverpool, predicted line-ups (tactical-board.com)

Eriksen is perhaps the most interesting conundrum. He is Pochettino’s most potent creative weapon. Like most Spurs players, Eriksen has never played in a game of this magnitude but he is unlikely to be fazed; his post-match interview after the miracle of Amsterdam had all the indifference of a man being quizzed on a particularly impressive walk of his dog. The Dane is the most likely man to unlock Liverpool’s defence, and if Trippier gets the chance to charge up the right and occupy Robertson, Eriksen will have pockets of space on that side in which to scheme.

It is worth noting that Klopp has the edge in his head-to-head record with Pochettino, but it has almost always been tight, decided by the finer details. Both of Liverpool’s wins this season ultimately came down to defensive errors and goalkeeping mistakes – by Michel Vorm at Wembley, and Hugo Lloris at Anfield. Liverpool will not need reminding of the importance of goalkeeping woes themselves. It might be decided by a piece of genius, but history suggests this Champions League final is just as likely to be remembered for its flaws.

Christian Eriksen and Andrew Robertson will play crucial roles (Getty) (Getty Images)

Yet few errors are entirely unforced, and the team with the tactical upper-hand will have more opportunities to earn any luck that might come along. Pochettino is the manager with significant decisions to make, but it also means he has the power to surprise. Few teams at the top of world football are as malleable as Tottenham right now, and that can be to their benefit.

It means Klopp will have to react from the touchline, and his players will have to come up with solutions on the pitch. In this sense, perhaps Tottenham hold some initiative; the history of their recent encounters says Liverpool are favourites, but that same history holds valuable lessons, lessons which Tottenham can use to their advantage.

Predicted line-ups

Tottenham (4-2-3-1): Lloris; Trippier, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose; Sissoko, Winks; Alli, Eriksen, Son; Lucas.

Liverpool (4-3-3): Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson; Fabinho, Henderson, Wijnaldum; Mane, Salah, Firmino.