England’s first few touches against Slovakia will reveal everything about their Euro 2024 hopes

Are the England team as relaxed and confident as they insist or are they feeling the weight of expectation? The answer may ultimately decide their progress in Euro 2024 and Gareth Southgate’s future

In the last few days before tonight’s Slovakia game, Harry Kane has been sitting with Jude Bellingham to watch clips of their play together in the group so far. It is telling that there isn’t that much of it. Bellingham has already earned a reputation as a young player who will tell almost anyone what he thinks, but he knows to listen to the captain. Kane has been talking to him about what they can do to become more fluid.

It is also why Southgate tends to leave the final words before big games to Kane, and some of the other senior players. The striker isn’t the most expansive speaker, but he can be to the point. That’s all Southgate feels England need now.

“There are moments where you touch on certain things, but we have been delivering messages all week,” the manager said. “By the time you get to the kick-off, less is better. The players are normally ready and you expect them, with their experience, to be in the right zone and the right frame of mind.”

That frame of mind is one of the big uncertainties with England’s entire campaign, to go with what gameplan they are actually readying themselves for. Regardless of the latter, they need to be able to execute it. The first few touches against Slovakia will indicate a lot, especially after all the “noise” of the last two weeks, as well as the boos after the actual performances. Southgate believes the extended break after the group stage has done the squad good, to go with the mental shift from group games to knockouts.

“There’s definitely an excitement and a good feel around the group the last few days,” he said. “It also coincided with being able to have a day off the training pitch and relaxing a little bit. A bit of golf. It’s not always science. We’re surrounded by science and data in our world now, and sport is about joy and enjoyment… I feel we’ve been through a good week in that sense.”

You can make your own joke about how much of England’s football has been about “joy and excitement”, which is why Kane feels the “connection” between himself and Bellingham has been crucial. They need to start showing more adventure on the pitch to show none of this is getting to them.

Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have worked to improve their-on field understanding (The FA via Getty Images)

The captain echoed so many other figures in the camp by talking about how the “noise”, and especially that around Southgate, has no effect.

“We know what we’re doing here,” Kane said. “We trust the process. We trust everything we believe in, and the rest of it is just noise. It’s something you block out and focus on yourself. I think we’ve been really good at that in the past tournaments and this tournament is no different.”

It’s just, England keep saying all that, and then go out and play as if they feel under all the same weight as previous sides.

That’s why this last-16 match against Slovakia is both a potential “fork in the road” game, to use the words of one camp member, as well as maybe Southgate’s last game. His future hangs on this, although the manager naturally insists he isn’t thinking about it. Even before those first touches, the starting line-up may be even more instructive.

Does Southgate persist with the same shape and approach, where it is to be assumed the performances will be similar, or does he go bold? If the former, this match could be another slog. England will still be a hard team to beat, which could well be crucial in these knock-outs, but they will also make winning hard too. Southgate and his staff have continued working on different approaches, so the possibility to do something very different is there. It would just be brave to try that mid-tournament. The feeling within the camp is still that there needs to be more energy in the attacking areas.

That is why some sort of compromise feels likely.

Kobbie Mainoo is the obvious midfield option now, especially since this is very likely to be a similar match to Slovenia. Slovakia will be prepared to leave England with the ball for long periods, which is why Mainoo makes so much more sense than any other midfielder.

Luke Shaw is back in full training, but it’s probably too early for him. He would transform the side by just giving so much more balance. It would alter the entire perspective of the team.

The most telling decision, however, will be over whether Southgate persists with the same attack. Anthony Gordon, the subject of so much other noise as regards his club future, would add pace and balance. Cole Palmer would offer more invention to the attack, and he was key to England’s best move of the tournament so far with that sleek break in the final minutes of the 0-0 against Slovenia. That spell has given Southgate something to consider.

Cole Palmer was bright in a cameo against Slovenia (Martin Rickett/PA)

Some of the players still expect him to stick with the same formation, especially given the work Kane and Bellingham have put in.

“I still feel like the movements are there. We’re moving really well and I thought it was a lot better than the first two games. Like I touched on before the tournament, the relationship is still fairly new. Even though we have played a bit together there’s still things we can both do better.”

While Kane made a point of talking about how much he believes in Bellingham, he also claimed the attack “is improving”.

“I’d say the last game was definitely our best even though it was a 0-0 draw," the forward said. "I just think when you look back and see the way we were in the build-up and the mid-third. In the final third it didn’t quite click for one reason or another but I think we got into good areas and on another day it could have been a 1-0 or 2-0 result.”

Slovakia will be a more difficult game than that. St George’s Park has a “big operation” surveying every game so it didn’t really matter that England only knew their opponents on Wednesday night. There was a full assessment ready by Friday, although they are a team that Southgate has long been especially impressed by.

“Slovakia are a team that have played well already for a long time but also in this tournament. They press really well, they defend aggressively, high up the pitch, they use the ball well, they want to play, we have to be ready for everything.”

The in-form Stanislav Lobotka will pose very different challenges as the playmaker. Southgate even went so far as to say Slovakia's 1-0 win over Belgium was “one of the best performances I’ve seen in this tournament”.

England are going to finally need a performance of their own. While this is viewed as the forgiving side of the draw, it will be a tough game, with any struggle all the more punishing due to the new expectation.

“Everybody is always talking about the top seeded teams but those other teams have played exceptionally well and have produced fabulous moments,” Southgate said. “So I think we're experienced to know that in tournaments, that's the key, you have to peak, you have to perform well for a set period of time, that's why Greece won a Euros, people can produce those performances over a period of time and all 16 teams left in can win.”

England now need to show they are one of the teams that should win it.