England, Scotland and the ‘strange’ dilemma of Olympics qualification

Scotland’s best chance of reaching the Olympics as part of Team GB is by losing heavily to the Lionesses at Hampden – but the hosts are unlikely to roll over against the ‘Auld Enemy’

Anyone but England? Maybe not this time. Scotland’s best chance of reaching the Olympics as part of Team GB is by losing heavily to the Lionesses at Hampden, as England travel north requiring “as many goals as possible” to decide a confusing set of permutations in Nations League Group A1. The build-up to what should be a grand staging of a historic football rivalry has instead been dominated by what England, who are the nominated nation when it comes to Olympics qualification, require at Hampden and whether Scotland will help or hinder the “Auld Enemy”, as well as themselves.

It is a farcical situation, one that does no favours to Scotland ahead of what is perhaps their biggest-ever home fixture against their neighbours, a dilemma everyone saw coming when England and Scotland were placed into the same group of a tournament that directly leads to Olympics qualification. As the nominated nation, it is only England’s results that count towards securing a place at Paris next summer, only the Lionesses who can qualify on behalf of Team GB by reaching the Nations League final. With Scotland playing England twice in Group A1, there has been a clear conflict of interest – one that has been sharpened given what is now on the line.

England kept Team GB’s hopes alive on Friday night with their dramatic second-half comeback against the Netherlands at Wembley, yet they now require a different type of win. Coming into the final round level on points with the Netherlands but with an inferior goal difference, England must win by three goals more than the Dutch, should they also defeat Belgium. Sarina Wiegman has prepared the Lionesses to attack Scotland from the start and, given England hit 80 goals in 10 games while qualifying for the last World Cup, they are no strangers to racking up a scoreline.

Such a result would be met with scepticism in the Netherlands and Belgium, however. For the Scotland players with Olympics ambitions, their best hope of going to Paris next summer will now be by losing heavily to the Lionesses. “It’s strange,” queried the Netherlands manager Andries Jonker, whose team would miss out should England beat the Dutch to top spot in Group A1. The Netherlands need to win, too, against Belgium, but they are now at the mercy of Scottish professionalism, or, at the very least, whether a centuries-old desire to deny England at all cost remains as strong.

Wiegman, who will take charge of Team GB should they qualify, was unequivocal as she insisted Scotland would be taking the game seriously. For Scotland, the chance to beat England cannot be dismissed, particularly at Hampden. This is meant to be a rivalry and the tireless energy and fight of Chelsea midfielder Erin Cuthbert, who has more at stake than anyone in the team given she would go to Paris with Team GB, is likely to set an example that her teammates will have to follow. But if it seems disrespectful to even suggest that Scotland would roll over for England, they have not been helped by the decision to tie Olympics qualification to the inaugural season of the Women’s Nations League. Allowing two parts of Team GB to be placed in the same group is a further mistake that will need to be rectified in future years.

Catch 22: Being that Scotland’s Erin Cuthbert has a possible place on Team GB on the line, her shirt number is fairly apt (Getty)

After all, if there is an argument that certain Lionesses could benefit by not having another major tournament in 2024 – there are eight players who have played in three successive tournaments, at the 2021 Olympics, 2022 Euros and 2023 World Cup – the same cannot be said for Scotland. The Olympics tournament, which in women’s football retains significant prestige, represents an opportunity for those Scottish players who did not qualify for the previous World Cup or European Championships.

Or maybe not. If Scotland want to add fuel to the fire, many would point to the fact that at the previous Games 19 of the 22 players selected for Team GB were English; Scotland only had two players selected by Hege Riise for Tokyo, the co-captain Kim Little, who has since retired from international duty, and Caroline Weir, who is out due to a season-ending ACL injury. Should Team GB qualify, the majority of Wiegman’s squad would likely be made up of those she already knows from the Lionesses. It raises the question over how ‘GB’ Team GB would actually be.

Sarina Wiegman speaks at Hampden ahead of England’s Nations League decider (Getty)

Such long-standing tensions over national identity obviously frame the football rivalry staged in Glasgow, as Scotland build towards their big Hampden night. It is unfortunate, perhaps, that the visit of the European champions and World Cup finalists comes on what is set to be a freezing December evening – the temperature is unlikely to help ticket sales and while the Lionesses played in front of over 70,000 on Friday, the crowd at Hampden will show that Scotland remain a few years behind England when it comes to the growth of women’s football.

Scotland are feeling the effects of England’s progress, however, following the transformational impact of the Lionesses not only hosting but winning the Euros on home soil. Attendances in Scotland’s top-flight, which remains semi-professional, are rising but are still some way off those set in the Women’s Super League. But for Scotland, beating the Lionesses could be the moment that they deliver their own inspirational night. The twist in the tail is that, with Olympics qualification on the line, it would come at a cost to not just England.