Ballon d’Or odds: Vinicius Jr battles Jude Bellingham and Rodri for prestigious prize

Real Madrid’s Vinicius Jr. is the early favourite, but he’s facing plenty of competition from teammates and those who won Euro 2024

Kylian Mbappe and Vini Jr are now teammates after the former’s move to Madrid in July (Getty Images)

The Ballon d’Or nominees have been revealed as the world’s top men’s players contend for the sport’s most distinguished individual award in October.

The 2023/24 season was a bittersweet one for so many of the nominees, with certain players enjoying success but narrowly missing out on domestic, continental or international glory.

Rodri won a fourth successive Premier League title and the European Championship but fell to Real Madrid in the Champions League, while Lautaro Martinez won the Copa America and Serie A and Lamine Yamal exploded onto the international scene with electrifying performances for Spain at Euro 2024.

The 30 nominees – including Bayer Leverkusen’s Granit Xhaka and Arsenal’s Martin Odegaard – were released alongside the nominees for the Ballon d’Or Féminin and the Kopa Trophy, and Vinicius Jr is the current favourite to take home the prestigious award.

But who are his nearest challengers, and could anyone spring a surprise come October?

Vinicius Jr: 4/9

Vini Jr. scored in the Champions League final win over Borrusia Dortmund (Getty Images)

Age: 24

Nationality: Brazilian

Club: Real Madrid

Vinicius has established himself as one of the best players on the planet despite a turbulent start to his time at Real Madrid, and the Brazilian now has a long list of impressive big-game performances in both La Liga and the Champions League.

Several of these came last season, as the 24-year-old bagged 24 goals and 11 assists across a series of brilliant displays, including one goal in the final against Dortmund and two in the semi-finals against Bayern Munich as he collected the second Champions League trophy of his career.

Despite a disappointing Copa America campaign with Brazil, a La Liga and Champions League win, combined with the consistency of his performances at club level, have solidified his status at firm favourite to pick up a first Ballon d’Or.

Rodri: 7/4

Rodri won his fourth Premier League title in a row, as well as Euro 2024, last season (Getty Images)

Age: 28

Nationality: Spanish

Club: Manchester City

Rodri has become perhaps the key player for Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side in recent years – quite the statement considering the presence of Erling Haaland in the squad. The Spanish midfielder was key in anchoring the Cityzens’ midfield last season as they overcame Arsenal to win a fourth successive Premier League title.

The 28-year-old joined up with talented Spain side in Germany ahead of Euro 2024, and was again key as a team that few fancied before the tournament eventually consolidated their status as the best side in Europe, with Rodri’s performances alongside Fabian Ruiz gaining plenty of plaudits as La Roja won a third European Championship title.

Jude Bellingham: 11/2

Bellingham hit the ground running after joining Los Blancos, and won a La Liga-Champions League double (Getty Images)

Age: 21

Nationality: English

Club: Real Madrid

Bellingham was perhaps the most wanted player in the world in the 2023 summer transfer window, and his move to Real Madrid instantly looked like a match made in heaven as the 21-year-old got off to the perfect start in the Spanish capital, scoring eight goals in his first 10 matches (including on his debut) as he established himself as one of the first names on Carlo Ancelotti’s team sheet.

Bellingham maintained a constantly impressive level of performance while chiming in with several important goals, including late winners against Celta Vigo and Getafe and two against Barcelona. The Englishman capped off a great season by capturing a La Liga title and the first Champions League trophy of his career, and followed it up with solid performances for England as the Three Lions made the final of Euro 2024.

Dani Carvajal: 8/1

Carvajal was instrumental in Spain’s Euro 2024 win (Getty Images)

Age: 32

Nationality: Spanish

Club: Real Madrid

Carvajal was a surprise package last season, and the only nominee who was able to add international glory to domestic success and a Champions League title. The 32-year-old was another Real player who popped up with big goals in big moments, scoring the first goal in the Champions League final against Dortmund and late goals in the league against Almeria and Sevilla.

In the summer, he added to his impressive club displays at right-back as part of a resolute Spanish defence, keeping Bellingham, Foden and co. quiet as La Roja secured a 2-1 win in the Euro 2024 final.

Lamine Yamal: 11/1

Yamal became a household name due to his performances at Euro 2024 (Getty Images)

Age: 17

Nationality: Spanish

Club: Barcelona

Lamine Yamal wasn’t exactly an unknown quantity coming into Euro 2024, with the then-16-year-old having produced electrifying shows of his ability for Barca in both La Liga and the Champions League. But the youngster became a household name during the summer Championship, with his performances on the wing for Spain ending with plenty of goals, assists and chances created.

The 17-year-old’s willingness and ability to take on his marker was crucial to the way the team functioned in attack, with his ability to pick out a pass and a decision-making capacity far beyond his years also crucial in creating goals, including Nico Williams’ opener in the final. Yamal’s stunning curled effort against France will likely remain one of the enduring images of the tournament.

Kylian Mbappe: 22/1

Mbappe scored his first La Liga goal on 1 September against Betis (Getty Images)

Age: 25

Nationality: French

Club: Real Madrid

Mbappe was the subject of much media attention before his long-touted move to Real Madrid was finalised in July, but on the pitch it was a relatively quiet season for the Frenchman by his lofty standards.

PSG were disappointing in their semi-final loss to Dortmund in the Champions League, while Mbappe could do nothing as Spain edged Les Bleus in the semi-finals of Euro 2024. However, the 25-year-old grabbed an impressive 44 goals and 10 assists over 48 games for PSG as they won Ligue 1, putting him higher than expected on the list of favourites.

Lautaro Martinez: 33/1

Martinez scored the only goal of Argentina’s Copa America final win in July (Getty Images)

Age: 27

Nationality: Argentinian

Club: Inter Milan

Lautaro Martinez is one of the most enigmatic players of recent years. The Argentina striker is a regular feature for an Inter Milan side that has contested Serie A titles and Champions League finals, but he has failed to ever reach the heights of some of his contemporaries, and is rarely rated among the best of his generation.

Opinions on the 27-year-old may be changing though, as he scored 24 goals over 33 matches in the league to win the golden boot as Inter Milan recaptured the Serie A title.

Martinez followed his league title with a string of good performances for Argentina at the Copa America too, as he stole the limelight from Lionel Messi by scoring five goals, including the winner in the final against Colombia.

Erling Haaland: 40/1

Halaand has already scored two hat-tricks in just three games in the 2024/25 season (Getty Images)

Age: 24

Nationality: Norwegian

Club: Manchester City

Haaland is another player who had a quiet 2023/24 – considering the standards he set in his first season in England – but he still managed to win a Premier League golden boot with 27 league goals as City won a fourth successive title.

With no summer tournament – with Norway having failed to qualify for Euro 2024 – and no successive Champions League title, Haaland won’t have done enough to improve on his second-place Ballon d’Or finish last season, though he is showing ominous form so far in 2024/25 with seven goals in three matches in the Premier League.

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