Why Arsenal vs Man City is anything but a normal Premier League title decider

As leaders Arsenal challenge serial champions City the top-of-the-table clash is instead framed by unprecedented controversy

If Pep Guardiola was aggravated enough to name the nine Premier League clubs he felt had aggrieved Manchester City in Friday’s press conference, the feeling is more than mutual. The reaction around the competition is said to be one of “fury” about the nature of the Catalan manager’s comments. It got to the point where City executives were trying to explain it away to some counterparts as just Guardiola’s passion.

That passion nevertheless saw him name Arsenal as one of the nine and it could bring some interesting conversations at boardroom level on Wednesday. They could certainly go down some avenues people wouldn’t have anticipated.

Then again, that’s also been the story of this fixture. It was supposed to take place in October, only for the postponements from the Queen’s funeral to force readjustments. That was a point when both sides were on much better form, but it felt more relevant for Arsenal given this is all new to Mikel Arteta’s side, and there was always the danger they face City again without the reinforcements of a fine recent return.

As it is, they finally do host the champions on their worst run of the season so far – even if that is relative. The 1-0 defeat to Everton and 1-1 draw with Brentford represent the first time they have dropped points in consecutive Premier League games this season, to go with the FA Cup defeat to City themselves.

That means Arteta now faces questions as to when and if Arsenal can recover the form that has propelled their season. It might have dominated the build-up to the game in normal circumstances.

These are nothing like normal circumstances, though. The fixture will be framed by huge and utterly unprecedented controversy, as the champions have been charged with multiple rule breaches that also represent accusations of fraud.

As such, the questions around this Arsenal pale next to those around City as a club. They don’t just face an uncertain future but also an uncertain past, since the charges inherently call into question the last decade of football. So much depends on the outcome of this case, which is precisely why it has been in “all or nothing” terms.

Football being football, the inevitable tendency in a story this complicated has been to bring it all under the comforting language of the game. So, one of the biggest discussions has been whether it will inspire a “siege mentality” in Guardiola’s squad, as if their performance on the pitch in the next few months has anything to do with the proceedings of the case.

Guardiola’s response to the Premier League’s charges made discussion of a ‘siege mentality’ inevitable (Getty Images)

Something of such seriousness of course gets subsumed into the modern football “us against them” pantomime, a feeling that Guardiola was only willing to encourage, rather than more responsibly appeal to due process and proper investigation. The Catalan pointed to CAS as he mistakenly said that City had been “proved… completely innocent”. That wasn’t the case, since they were fined €10m for non-compliance and the body found they had contravened Article 56 of the Club Licensing and Financial Fair Play Regulations, before you even get to the fact that evidence was time-barred. CAS did similarly point out that “Uefa by no means filed frivolous charges” and that City acknowledged “there was a legitimate basis to prosecute” the club. That can be seen in the verdict document.

Guardiola’s response nevertheless made discussion of a “siege mentality” inevitable. It’s also an inevitable response from such a manager, to seek to use whatever he can to engender performance. It might also serve as a useful rallying point given Guardiola’s relationship with his squad this season has been more strained than usual. That could be seen in the “happy flowers” comment and decision to loan out Joao Cancelo. This uncertainty could offer a strange focus in purely football terms, especially with how the City hierarchy told Guardiola and the squad at training to not be concerned and just concentrate on the football.

There is, after all, a title to be won here, even as previous titles are called into question.

That history would have otherwise informed the build-up to this game, in those normal circumstances. The talk would have been about the new force in Arsenal challenging the serial champions. It would have felt one of those matches like Newcastle United against Manchester United in 1995-96 or, more recently, Liverpool-City in 2018-19. Can Arsenal show just how real this season’s great ambition can be, or will City show them what winning a title actually takes?

Arteta’s Arsenal side are in their worst run of form this season (Getty Images)

There is a connected argument over how it would be good for the Premier League for Arteta’s side to prevail – and that’s even before you get to the discussion about ownerships or the issue of a club charged with so many alleged breaches again lifting the trophy. If Arsenal win, it will be three different champions in four years. If they don’t, it will be five titles in six for City and a historically rare three-in-a-row emphasising their dominance.

The former gives the Premier League an image of competitive balance and vitality. The latter makes it look like it has become the preserve of a sportswashing project.

It is at least fortunate for the Premier League that Arsenal were able to quickly follow Liverpool in putting together a team like this and a challenge like this.

Some in the competition have even felt that Arteta’s side almost represent an evolved version of Guardiola’s football – emphasising the master against apprentice element of the game – especially with how they marry possession with these sudden turns and moves at pace. There are more diamond-sharp jagged edges than Guardiola’s smooth control. Or at least there were. The Catalan has had to incorporate the ultimate cutting edge in a player who almost solely scores goals in Erling Haaland – who is expected to be fit. Arsenal have very suddenly become a little laboured. They were going through many of the same motions against Everton and Brentford but without the previous intensity. Not even Martin Odegaard was finding the same space, or offering the same touches.

Odegaard will need to be at his best for Arsenal to avoid defeat against the champions (Getty Images)

The hope is that this recent blip is only the inevitable drop-off that Liverpool endured at this exact time in 2018-19, and that comes in such campaigns. It’s just a City that feel they have a point to prove may be the wrong opposition for that, especially when a defeat will cause more doubts to develop within Arsenal and put the champions on top.

It is why the stakes for this still feel so high, even though everything else around the game feels so different.

Much of it again presumes that City will go on one of those runs. It’s just, as the build-up to this fixture has shown, this season can yet go down some unexpected paths.