Tour de France: How Tom Dumoulin's pre-programmed legs can beat Geraint Thomas and Chris Froome

A time trial specialist like Dumoulin wouldn’t usually be much cause for concern at the sharp end of the Tour, yet it is precisely because he is such a different challenge that he poses such a threat

For an example of an athlete pacing themselves to perfection, see Kelly Holmes winning double Olympic gold in Athens. We all know the most efficient use of energy is an even output without sudden accelerations, whether that's in a car or on a bike or wearing spikes, but it takes discipline to implement in the biggest race of your life when your rivals speed off round the top bend. Holmes knew her best chance of winning was to stay on an even keel, running in her own bubble, and she picked off each rival as they ran out of steam.

It is a pretty handy comparison with what makes Tom Dumoulin tick. The Dutchman is the world time trial champion, a man who has made a living riding in a bubble, measuring every pedal stroke to match the last and the next, timing his exertions so his body gives out on the finish line, not a metre before or beyond. Right now Dumoulin is the rider Team Sky must find a way to hold off, as seemingly the only man left in the peloton who can beat Geraint Thomas to the yellow jersey.

A rider like Dumoulin wouldn’t usually be much cause for concern at the sharp end of the Tour, where the steepest peaks favour spidery climbers and the rest all fade away. Of his eight stage wins in grand tours, five have come in individual time trials and none have come on traditional mountain routes.

Yet it is precisely because he is such a different challenge that he poses such a threat. He approaches every climb with the same methodical predictability which makes him strangely unpredictable. How can you possibly know what he’s thinking when he doesn’t react to the race around him but simply rides the road beneath him? How do you out-manoeuvre a man with pre-programmed legs, who enters some higher state and only regains consciousness at the finish?

Tom Dumoulin is chasing Geraint Thomas and Chris Froome (AFP/Getty Images)

Typically a rider in Dumoulin’s position – 1 min 59 sec behind the overall leader Thomas – would look to mark one of his rivals, sticking on their wheel and never letting go. But as Froome pointed out on Monday’s rest day in Carcassonne, Dumoulin is a rider who doesn’t play by familiar rules.

“He’s obviously a different type of rider,” said Froome. “He’s almost a time triallist who’s learned and trained himself for grand tour riding. Even the way he approaches the climbs and the mountain-top finishes: he’s happy to drop off, he keeps a steady pace, he doesn’t ride on feeling but he’s more calculated, more planned, and that certainly makes it a different dynamic.”

The situation is reminiscent of the Giro in May when Froome and Dumoulin were trailing another British rider, Simon Yates. On that occasion Froome pulled off an astonishing attack on stage 19, destroying the field to clinch the Giro, and Dumoulin’s decision to maintain his pace rather than give chase was fruitless.

But what makes this week so intriguing is that it is capped by an individual time trial on stage 20, mirroring Dumoulin’s surprise win of the 2017 Giro d’Italia which also finished with an individual time trial that allowed him to pinch the pink jersey from Nairo Quintana. Admittedly, Saturday’s 31km route from Saint-Pée-sur-Nivelle to Espelette is a lumpy one, featuring a brief kilometre ascent at a gruelling average of 10.2 per cent which could favour a more natural climber like Froome, but if anyone can measure a Tour-winning time trial ride to perfection, it is Dumoulin.

Team Sky’s task is to not let him get there within striking distance. They have three more stages before the time trial to, at the very least, maintain their lead, and two experienced riders who are unlikely to let internal squabbles open the door. But if Thomas cracks, and the race opens up, Dumoulin will be there to seize control, steadily, methodically, and in his own unpredictable style.