New Zealand back Bond's pace to win place in semi-final

In a World Cup where a pin and a bottle of Scotch has occasionally been the best way of working out who, other than Australia, might qualify for its various stages, the conundrum has suddenly become simple for New Zealand. Victory against India here today will secure Stephen Fleming and his side the last remaining place in the semi-finals. Defeat, however, will leave them with a 24-hour wait for the result of tomorrow's match between Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe.

If Sri Lanka were to win in East London, and you have to fancy their chances against a despondent Zimbabwe side who were hammered by Kenya on Wednesday, it will be they who join Australia, India and amazingly Kenya in the last four, not New Zealand.

However, gaining the win they require, against a now in-form India, will be harder for Fleming and his well-drilled team than when the two sides last met in New Zealand before and over the festive season. Then, on poor pitches tailored to suit the home side, the Black Caps won both Test matches against India, in which the tourists failed to score over 200 in any of their four innings, before thrashing Sourav Ganguly's side 5-2 in the one-day series. In four of the seven matches India were skittled out for less than 125.

India's talented array of batsmen left New Zealand with their confidence in tatters and it showed in the early part of the tournament against Australia and the Netherlands. Ganguly said to me that he had never faced the great New Zealand fast bowler Sir Richard Hadlee, but, on these pitches, batting against Darryl Tuffey and Jacob Oram felt like it. Yesterday, in an attempt to undermine the Indian batsmen's new-found confidence, Fleming stated that his side were hoping to remind them of their recent lean time.

"They will be confident but sometimes that can be a weakness," said Fleming. "Hopefully we can reopen some of the wounds we opened in New Zealand."

Those scars appear to have healed pretty well though, because after Australia, India have comfortably been the best side in the tournament. The good surfaces in South Africa have aided a quick rehabilitation and today's true, grassless wicket will not be as accommodating for New Zealand's seamers as the damp, green, drop-in pitches that haunted India's batsmen 10 weeks ago.

Ganguly has every reason to win this encounter too, because he – like quite a few people – believes Sri Lanka have a better chance of upsetting Australia in their semi-final than New Zealand. (India will definitely play Kenya in the other semi.) This is because of the slow, low spinning nature of the pitch in Port Elizabeth that could help both the Sri Lankan batsmen and their spinners.

The key for New Zealand will be the performance of Shane Bond, the fast bowler who took 6 for 23 against Australia on Tuesday. Fleming needs Bond to break the opening partnership of Sachin Tendulkar and Virender Sehwag. This is because Tendulkar, who has scored 571 runs so far, has unquestionably been the star of the tournament, and Sehwag, his equally sublime partner, has built up a penchant for performing against New Zealand. If Bond can break this partnership early then the Kiwis have a chance, but if they cannot do so then one fears for New Zealand.