Mark Butcher: Play smart and England will pass the ultimate Test of their nerve

The fear factor among both sides will be enormous. England can do it. They must keep an eye on the prize

So to a grand finale which should have them rocking in the aisles more than a Status Quo gig. It was always probable that England had the ability to push Australia close this summer, but three matches of the type we have just had were beyond anybody's contemplation.

England are deservedly 2-1 ahead, but how close it was once more at Trent Bridge. They could have made life easier for themselves by batting again instead of enforcing the follow-on. That is not an observation born out of hindsight. At the time, when the news came through that Australia were being asked to bat again, I was sitting on The Oval balcony next to Steve Rixon, Surrey's Australian coach. "That," I said to him, "gives you your only chance of winning the game."

How close that came to coming true. Had I been in Michael Vaughan's shoes I would have batted again, because that deprived Australia of any chance of victory. Batting again is precisely what Australia have done over the years, it's what Surrey did when we were winning Championships - bat the opposition out of the game and give yourself time to bowl them out.

It is smart cricket. England could have established a lead of around 500 fairly quickly and that would have meant only one side could win. After all, part of the reason for winning the toss and batting first is that you do not want to bat fourth, so why change horses in mid-stream? It made the contest closer than it actually was. You have all those factors, plus Shane Warne.

But no matter, England came out smiling in the end, though I must admit I had a dose of the collywobbles in the field when the news came out that they were 50 for 4. Ashley Giles and Matthew Hoggard were brilliant. Hoggard is as honest and courageous a cricketer as there can have been. He has turned himself from a batting rabbit into an obstinate player who will not be easily removed.

Both of them have had their knockers, more so, along with Geraint Jones, than anybody. But they held their nerve magnificently, and for Hoggard to hit Brett Lee for four through the covers with the bowler trying to reverse-swing the ball at 95mph took some bravery for a non-specialist.

It will be an amazing contest starting on Thursday whether it is as close as the others or not. The Oval will be a cauldron of noise, exacerbated by the new stand, which keeps that noise inside the stadium. It is probably the biggest cricket match played in this country. It will be electrifying.

The fear factor among both sides will be enormous. England can do it, as they have shown in the last three matches, in which they have played the better cricket throughout. What they must do is keep one eye on the prize. The world championship table is irrelevant. It seems that England cannot overtake Australia, but I don't suppose many people will be taking much notice of that if they hold the Ashes.

The Oval has yielded four runs an over in first-class cricket for most of this season, and God knows how many in one-day matches. There is no reason to think it will change. The ideal would be to win the toss, put a big total on the board and make it impossible for Australia to win.

But losing the toss would not necessarily be a total disaster. The pitch offers some assistance early on. It will not be green, but there are some tufts about on which the seam could grip.

Australia have plenty of selection issues, England will be desperate to get Simon Jones fit. He has been a huge influence on this series, acting almost as spearhead at second change, and England will have no desire to change their formula now.

Of course, they have to make contingency plans in case he does not make it, and I note that several names have been mentioned. Chris Tremlett is the obvious one, because he has been around the squad all summer as 12th man. But he might not necessarily be called up because he has not had much match bowling recently and Hampshire did not pick him the other week, though he played in last week's game against Warwickshire. If he is not bang in form, a Test debut in the decisive Ashes match might not be ideal.

Another being talked of is Andrew Caddick, but I would not be in favour of that because I don't think it is the time to be looking back. Players who have not been involved for a couple of years being asked to perform in just one comeback match cannot be the answer. If it comes to it, my preference is to pick somebody who has a future and will be playing for a place.

But more than anything else, hope that the oxygen- chamber treatment that Simon Jones is undergoing works. Like everybody else in the country, I can hardly wait, and I think the Ashes will come home.