How to win: speed, more speed and heed the words of Jack Dempsey

View from Oz

Thirty-five years ago, when the World Cup was just a nervous itch in a far-sighted administrator's hip-pocket, an Australian new-ball bowler named Alan Connolly mastered what became the famous "knuckle ball".

By bending the middle finger of his right hand behind the ball, then delivering with normal arm velocity, Connolly produced a slower ball with no marked action change. Such a ball was only an occasional tactic in watchful Test cricket but as the limited-overs form flourished so did the knuckle ball, and its variations, to nobble the big hitters, particularly in the World Cups on the sub-continent where pitches were benign.

Different "knuckle" is likely to be in evidence in this World Cup: think world heavyweight title fight and Jack Dempsey's motto: "Kill the other guy before he kills you." Again, it's an Australian to the fore, Brett Lee, but his delivery is pure speed at 150kph and a danger to batsmen's knuckles. England's opening batsmen, Marcus Trescothick and Nick Knight, vouched for that in the recent tri-series final at Sydney.

This will be the speed World Cup, speed at the bowling crease, speed between the wickets and speed in the field. All that speed will quickly flatten the sentimental six, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Canada, Bangladesh, Kenya and Holland. The Super Six will come from the best of the rest, the elite eight and, if it doesn't, we'd better get Speed of the ICC to call in the betting sheets.

The World Cup is attractive to fans with a mathematical bent. They enjoy strike rates, economy rates, nett run rates and then, in the last 10 overs (the happy hour, or the death) the climactic equation (runs to get against balls left to bowl).

Here are some numbers from hell: since the 1999 World Cup, about 1,300 days, the elite eight have played in nearly 400 limited-overs matches. England have played the fewest, 65, but that doesn't mean Hussain's men will be freshest. Jaded more likely after the emasculation Down Under.

This is how the eight rank since that cup, with rough win percentages in brackets: 1 Australia (73), 2 South Africa (64), 3 Pakistan (59), 4 Sri Lanka (56), 5 India (49), 6 England (44), 7 West Indies (44), 8 New Zealand (40).

Such numbers are only relevant when compared with more recent 2002-03 games, the lead-in to the Cup. Look at them and suddenly, West Indies are out of limbo. 1 Australia (66), 2 Pakistan (60), 3 South Africa (57), 4 West Indies (56), 5 India (48), 6 Sri Lanka (47), 7 New Zealand (44), 8 England (43).

But the West Indian ranking is skewed by a whitewash of Bangladesh. Other numbers are a better guide: how have the eight fared in South Africa? 1 South Africa (71), 2 Australia (60), 3 India (42), 4 England (33), 5 Pakistan (20), 6 Sri Lanka (18), 7 New Zealand (0), 8 West Indies (0).

New Zealand have played five, lost five, but West Indies have not even played one. For the Caribbean supporters the dream of a new era may be a false dawn.

In any World Cup discussion, new-ball bowlers and opening batsmen assume key player status:

Australia: Brett Lee, Matthew Hayden. If Hayden trips, the wobbly middle order will be exposed, more so if Michael Bevan's groin stays grumpy. Lee must strike at the start, even the middle, and lastly frighten the rabbits.

Pakistan: Shoaib Akhtar, Saeed Anwar. They exemplify the magical mystery tour that is Pakistan: today's the day... er, make that tomorrow. Shoaib's bowling arm will be in no more dispute than Lee's or Muttiah Muralitharan's.

India: Javagal Srinath, Sachin Tendulkar. A twin-spin attack, Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh, will need early breaks from Srinath and runs to bowl at. Tendulkar might have to open if India get desperate for momentum.

England: Andy Caddick, Marcus Trescothick. Trescothick will appreciate early nets against Zimbabwe, Holland and Namibia, but if his Australian blackout persists Michael Vaughan is a brilliant back-up. Cotton-wool for Caddick. England, heavily stacked with bowlers, lack depth because the handy ones can't bat.

Unless Pakistan have more dog-days than usual, England and India might fight for the last Pool A spot in the Super Six. Whoever tops Pool A will have a date at Centurion on 7 March with South Africa, who will swamp Pool B. Shaun Pollock's team appear to have more batting depth than Australia and a physically fitter bowling attack. Their six genuine all-rounders will be a bonus in a contest as intense as this.

At recent cups, New Zealand have been the clever team, using what look like limited resources to maximum tactical effect. The explosive Chris Cairns is a game breaker. Neither West Indies nor Sri Lanka look to have the bowling nous to threaten this numerical certainty.

Even money South Africa versus Australia in The Wanderers final on 23 March. But you know what they say about betting on anything with human involvement.