Plans for refugee crisis 'inadequate'

Preparations for a humanitarian crisis in Iraq are woefully inadequate despite official estimates that two million civilians would be left homeless by a military strike, aid officials say.

A confidential report drawn up by the United Nations estimates that an American-led invasion would, in addition to those left homeless, put up to 10 million civilians at risk of disease and hunger. The impact of an invasion would probably be worse than that of the 1991 Gulf War, the report says, because oil production would be halted, electricity cut and the distribution of UN-supplied food severely disrupted.

"The bulk of the population is now totally dependent on the government of Iraq for a majority, if not all, of their basic needs," says the report, published online yesterday by Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq, a pressure group based at Cambridge University.

"Unlike the situation in 1991, they have no way of coping if they cannot access them: the sanctions regime, if anything, has served to increase dependence on the government as almost the sole provider." UN preparations for dealing with the aftermath of a strike have been secretive because the body has not wanted to be seen to be backing America's demands for regime change.

Some preparations have been under way for some time: food, blankets and tents are being stockpiled by the UN Children's Fund, the World Food Programme and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in countries such as Iran and Jordan. Last month, the UN launched an appeal in Geneva, calling for £23m to fund its preparations.

Despite this, aid workers in the field do not believe enough is being done. Peter Kessler, a spokesman for the UNHCR, said that having to deal with crises such as that in the Ivory Coast had greatly diminished supplies.

Officials say a potential crisis – in the form of the expected exodus of Iraqi refugees and disruptions to food distribution, electricity, water, fuel, waste disposal and public health – is made more likely by Iraq's weakened condition.

Christopher Klein Beekman, a programme co-ordinator for Unicef in Iraq, told the San Francisco Chronicle: "Iraq is already in crisis. The capacity for withstanding shortages is very light. Malnourished children, pregnant women have suffered the most and those are the ones who will suffer the most during war, that's clear."

Some foreign aid officials here say their hands are tied because they must wait until the completion of the UN arms inspections and the progress of diplomacy before taking such action as stockpiling food, water and shelter.

"No one in the international community can spend money on preparations because that would give the message that war is inevitable," said Majeed Waleed, the deputy manager for Care International, the largest non-government organisation in Iraq. "It's a political statement. So we can't do anything."