The Houthis are used to airstrikes after years of Yemen’s civil war – they won’t go quietly

The US and UK have been clear that attacks on Red Sea shipping cannot go unanswered, writes Bel Trew. But the issue will be exactly how much Houthi capability has been damaged

People take part in a protest on the streets of the Yemeni Red Sea city of Hodeidah (AFP/Getty)

The impact of Israel’s bloody war inside Gaza has sent tidal waves through the Red Sea and across the region.

Now British warplanes and American jets, ships and submarines have launched more than 100 precision-guided munitions at dozens of targets across Yemen against the Houthis, an Iran-backed militant group that has taken control of swathes of the war-ravaged country across the last decade.

This extraordinary action was in retaliation for Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, which the rebels claim is aimed at Israel-bound ships and intended to support the Palestinian cause against Israel. According to some reports, the Houthi attacks have reduced shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by as much as 40 per cent. The crisis has even threatened to see manufacturing of goods halt – Tesla announced it had to shutter a factory in Germany for two weeks over the unrest.

Prime minister, Rishi Sunak, said the overnight pounding of Yemen sent a “strong signal” to the Houthis, while the UK Ministry of Defence said early indications showed that Houthis’ ability to threaten merchant shipping “has taken a blow”. Downing Street admitted in a statement that while the strikes against the Houthis may not immediately make the Red Sea safer it insisted they would bring benefits in the longer term.

But beyond the posturing, how effective is this strategy?

The fear is that the strikes – the first US sorties over Yemen in eight years – will do little to minimise the capabilities of the Houthis. The group has successfully fought for decades against the Yemeni government (and its powerful Gulf backers including Saudi Arabia) first by initially fighting a brutal guerrilla war in the country's unforgiving mountainous terrain before successfully capturing major cities and entrenching its hold over large parts of the country during the last eight years of civil war.

Benjamin H Friedman, of the US think tank Defense Priorities, said the punishment inflicted on the Houthis is essentially “a pinprick” and will only bolster their domestic political legitimacy. Pounding a dozen or so areas is far too limited to deprive the Houthis of their ability to use increasingly sophisticated long-range weapons, provided by Iran, he added. The group has a substantial stock of artillery, drones and missiles, a mixture of old Yemeni military stocks alongside newer Iranian, North Korean and Chinese-made products.

Rather than loosening the stranglehold on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea bottleneck that tankers must traverse to get to the Suez Canal, the US-UK strikes might actually encourage them to escalate and widen their attacks on shipping.

The Houthis – who said five of their number were killed – have already vowed to retaliate and continue their attacks on shipping.

Before Thursday’s bombings, the group limited its attacks on Israeli-linked vessels and those heading to Israel, but it could broaden that to all shipping associated with the UK, the US and their partners that supported the strikes, like Australia, Canada and the Netherlands.

The strikes also risk worsening the impact of the crisis on the global economy because they could spark a broader tit-for-tat conflict across the southern Red Sea.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, the Houthi attacks have already caused a spike in shipping costs because of higher risk premiums as well as re-routing and cancellations and tanker traffic is expected to fall even further. That will further drive up prices across Europe, North America and Asia, which was already dealing with the inflation ripples from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

We have already seen an impact: immediately after the strikes the price of oil rose sharply over concerns that supplies could be disrupted, with Brent crude up $2 on Friday morning. Commercial ship tracking data showed at least four oil tankers diverting from the Red Sea.

There are also worries that the strikes only play into the Houthi rhetoric that they are defending the Palestinian cause against a US and Western-backed Israel and may perversely be welcomed by the group, to spin domestically.

With the conflict broadening to more than 1,000 miles away from Gaza, there is a risk the hostilities could potentially drag in other regional powers – including the Gulf Cooperation Council states that have unsuccessfully tried to quash the Houthi threat for years. So far Tehran has steered clear of direct involvement with the Houthi attacks, and Riyadh has called for restraint in response to the US and UK strikes, likely fearing Houthis long-range missiles will train on Saudi cities next.

From Washington’s and London’s perspective, however, the attacks on the Red Sea shipping cannot go unanswered. Despite facing backlash from countries including Turkey, that accused the UK and the US of trying to turn the Red Sea into a “sea of blood”, Mr Sunak has been adamant the bombings were self-defence in line with UN charters. But the ramifications could be far-reaching.