Shia Muslims say they will rebel against Saddam if US invades

Shia Muslims of southern Iraq will mount an uprising against Saddam Hussein as soon as US and British troops invade, according to travellers reaching Iraqi Kurdistan from government-controlled territory yesterday.

"I think there will be an intifada [uprising] in the towns and villages of the south," said one man, from the Shia holy city of Najaf on the Euphrates. The man, who did not want his name published, had left Najaf, south-west of Baghdad, to escape arrest by Iraqi security men the day before and fledby paying bribes at checkpoints.

The same story was repeated by other travellers reaching Iraqi Kurdistan, which is outside the control of the Iraqi government. "If there is any sign of weakness on the part of the government there will be an uprising," a shopkeeper from Baghdad said. He expected that the several million Shia Arabs in the capital would rebel in the districts where they predominate such as Al-Thawra, Al-Zaafarania and Al-Shulla. The Shia Arabs of southern Iraq and Baghdad make up at least 55 per cent of the Iraqi population but have traditionally been denied power by the Sunni Arab minority to which President Hussein belongs. After the 1991 Gulf War they rebelled against the Iraqi leader, capturing all of southern Iraq before the uprising was violently crushed.

Kamran Karadaghi, a commentator on Iraqi affairs, said: "I think a rebellion in the south is quite likely because the Shia live in such misery." He said President Saddam's most likely military strategy was to try to defend Baghdad. This would mean stripping southern Iraq of his most loyal units, making it easier for rebels to seize control. Most of the soldiers in the Iraqi regular army are Shia.

A rebellion by the Shia would complicate plans by the US for an orderly occupation of Iraq. Earlier in the month, American officials angered representatives of the Iraqi opposition, much of which is Shia and Kurdish, at a meeting in Ankara, Turkey by revealing that America planned a military government for Iraq but would keep in place most of the Sunni establishment that had served President Hussein.

Iraqis interviewed on the road leading north from Kirkuk said the mood in their towns and cities was one of deep fear as war approached. Women said they were stocking rice, oil and sugar. Kurds from Kirkuk said that they were frightened of being forced to join the Iraqi al-Quds militia and then used as cannon fodder by the government. Many of them had lost relatives in the Iran- Iraq war.

None of the travellers, who had just passed out of government controlled territory, would give their names. Some said they were under suspicion because they had relatives executed or imprisoned by President Saddam in the past.

Shia Iraqis are worried that if they rise up too early before the US is fully committed to a land invasion they will be vulnerable to a government counter-offensive as in 1991. "Many people in Najaf are pessimistic about the chances of American action," said a traveller from the city. At the same time he thought those who had joined the Al-Quds militia, which will be the Iraqi government's first line of defence against an uprising, had done so for money. He saidmany would switch to the rebels.

Any rebellion it is likely to be largely spontaneous. After years of fierce oppression none of the Shia political organisations have the strength to co-ordinate an uprising. "I don't think things will be very well organised," Mr Karadaghi said.

The Iranian-backed Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq is the strongest political group representing the Shia population. It has a small army of 5,000 to 10,000 men based largely in Iran. Abdel-Aziz Hakim, the head of the military bureau of the council, was quoted by reports in Arbil yesterday as denying that his group had increased its forces in Kurdistan, but saying it had units all over Iraq.

Inside Iraq, President Saddam has made sure there are no Shia leaders with authority by systematically assassinating them. However, most Iraqi families have modern weapons in their houses.

The problem for the US is much the same as it was in 1991 when President Saddam had been defeated in Kuwait and had lost 14 out of Iraq's 18 provinces to Shia and Kurdish rebels. While the US wanted regime change and the Iraqi leader toppled, it did not want revolutionary change. But if democracy was introduced in Iraq, revolutionary change would be inevitable because Shia and Kurds make up three-quarters of the Iraqi population.

Patrick Cockburn is a visiting fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and the co-author of 'Saddam Hussein: An American Obsession'.