Quiet redeployment of American forces in the Gulf suggests attack will be delayed

It is certainly not a retreat, not even a reversal of long-term strategy, but the United States has been quietly redeploying its forces in the Gulf, hinting that an attack on Iraq may be delayed.

After a steady build-up of troops in the area, much of it undisclosed, to 60,000 in the past seven weeks, America's momentum appears to be slowing as the diplomatic war over a new United Nations resolution reaches its final, crucial phase.

The headquarters of the US 5th Fleet continues to host a battle group in Bahrain led by an aircraft carrier. But, diplomatic sources said, there are no plans, as had been expected, for the USS Abraham Lincoln to be joined by another carrier. The USS George Washington, which was in the Gulf before Lincoln, is believed to be on its way home.

The Amphibious Ready group of the US Marines, has also left the area recently. The force, which will play a key role in any assault on Iraq, is undertaking an exercise in Djibouti, in the horn of Africa.

At the same time, the upsurge of recent activity by al-Qa'ida and their sympathisers has led to an upgrading of security for American and British service personnel arms and equipment. There are fears about possible suicide attacks on shipping in the Gulf.

At present the US base in Manama is home to about 2,000 personnel, a figure that is expected to rise to almost 4,000 if and when the decision is made to initiate the final stages of military planning. Its numbers have recently been stable.

The American naval force includes attack submarines, cruisers, destroyers and up to 70 fighters. The USAF has bombers, tactical fighters and refuelling tankers at Sheikh Isa air base. The British contribution consists of a small number of Nimrod reconnaissance aircraft and VC10 tankers – again, without recent increases to these numbers.

Pentagon officials have said the continuing haggling at the UN over the wording of the resolution could delay the deployment of American troops for a possible attack against Saddam Hussein's regime. If a resolution is adopted and weapons inspectors return to Iraq for operations expected to take months, then the time frame is almost certain to slip beyond this winter.

Both US and British commanders are believed to oppose the deployment of further large contingents of personnel to the Gulf if plans for an attack are put on hold. Keeping servicemen and women in the same bases or aircraft carriers for months on end is thought to sap morale, which is why the marines have been sent to Djibouti.

But the Pentagon has now secured all the roll-on roll-off vessels necessary for directly shipping heavy armour into the area, and this is likely to continue, diplomatic sources said. About 600 members of CentCom, the US Central Command at Tampa, Florida, who are due in Qatar next month, are still expected to arrive, purportedly for an exercise.

There is little sign of political support for a new war from the governments in the region that supported the United States in the 1990-91 Gulf War. Bahrain, which is holding its first democratic elections in 29 years, fears the economic and political consequences of an assault on Iraq could be extremely unpleasant .