Why Trump and Kushner’s push for a deal between Saudi Arabia and Qatar might fail

The blockade of Qatar began in 2017 and until recently there have been few signs of an end to the dispute between some of the world’s richest nations, writes Borzou Daragahi

Deal or no deal? Jared Kushner and Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Doha earlier this week (EPA)

Prodded by the outgoing administration of Donald Trump, the squabbling nations of the Arabian Peninsula appear closer than ever at putting to an end a three-and-a-half year cold war that has split the Middle East and complicated efforts to pressure Iran, fight militant extremism, and encourage trade.  

But experts say the path to healing the rift within the club of six wealthy Arab monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) remains some way off, with little sign that either side is ready to give way on the substantive issues divide them.  

In recent days, Kuwait has signalled that it has managed to make some progress in beginning a dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Qatar following visits by Mr Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state.  

Details were scant. Kuwaiti media has reported a “reconciliation” would take place at the next summit of the GCC which opens in Bahrain on 10 December. Saudi official state media said there had been “real progress’” in talks, a view shared in part by Qatari officials. But Doha also said there had to be agreement between all countries, and not limited to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Since 2017, monarchies in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – along with Egypt – have imposed a severe economic and physical blockade on the tiny gas-rich nation of Qatar over its support for populist political Islam, its backing for critical media outlets such as Doha state-owned Al Jazeera, and its perceived  political interference in the broader Middle East. At one point, there were mounting fears that Saudi Arabia would invade Qatar and topple the monarchy of Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

The blockade, spearheaded by the UAE’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and encouraged initially by Mr Trump, is widely considered a failure. Qatar has not tempered its foreign policy. Instead, it has become more self-sufficient – going as far as to airlift cows from Germany for milk production – and Doha has expanded trade, diplomatic and even military ties with Iran and Turkey.  

It has redirected its considerable air traffic over Iran, giving the country an annual $100m windfall in overflight fees and undermining the Trump administration’s scheme to pressure Tehran.

Even a number of senior Saudi policymakers have already privately voiced their doubts about how effective the blockade has been, quietly conceding that it has been counterproductive.  

Washington would like Saudi Arabia to lift the blockade and deny Iran the extra cash. But it remains unclear whether Qatar would be willing to sever relations with Iran, with whom it shared a gas field and which came to its aid when Saudi, UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt pushed to topple the monarchy. 

“Iran-Qatari trade has increased massively since 2017,” said Andreas Krieg, a Gulf expert at King’s College London and a former military adviser to Qatar. “It’s not just necessarily out of not having any alternative. In a lot of cases, Iranian products are better or cheaper than others in the region. It was  a choice by Qatar to integrate further with Iran.”

Shifting politics in Washington is an incentive for both Saudi Arabia and Qatar to make amends. Both the former and the UAE, following the defeat of their close ally Mr Trump in November elections, are scrambling to redefine themselves and get in the good graces of President-elect Joe Biden. Abu Dhabi’s historic peace deal with Israel has won plaudits in Washington.  

“Improving relations with Qatar is a signal to Biden that they could be more flexible in their posture,” said Cinzia Bianco, an expert on the Arabian Peninsula at the European Council of Foreign Relations.  

In order to remove the blockade, the Gulf nations presented Qatar with a draconian list of 13 demands that included pulling the plug on the popular Al Jazeera television network. But experts say that it has failed to even tone down the network’s critical coverage of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has been harshly criticised for the 2018 murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khahsoggi and alleged war crimes during the five year-conflict in Yemen.  

“It’s not just Al Jazeera; it’s a lot of the Qatari-backed media and think tanks and intellectual structures,” said Ms Biano.  “We’re talking almost 100 institutions.”

At the root of the conflict within the GCC is an ideological split between Qatar, which supports the type of populist Islam represented by the Muslim Brotherhood organisation and Turkish president Recep Tayyup Erdodan, and the UAE, which views political Islam a threat to its authoritarian model. 

Though Saudi Arabia and the UAE have drifted apart over the last year, the leadership in Abu Dhabi managed to scuttle a possible deal with Qatar, as they did when a similar initiative emerged last year. 

"The apparent lack of UAE support for even a partial resolution of the GCC rift will limit the positive effects of any Saudi-Qatar agreement and could set the stage for a full relapse of the dispute in subsequent years,” said a note by the Soufan Group, a security consultancy.

“The UAE could be a very big wrench in any kind of designs for reconciliation,” said Caroline Rose, Middle East analyst at Geopolitical Futures, an online publication.  

The US is in a hurry to make a deal. Although Mr Trump has appeared to have abandoned his duties as president as he focuses on overturning the results of the November vote, Mr Kushner and Mr Pompeo have been rushing to secure changes on the ground in the Middle East.  

“The biggest force behind this is the Trump administration’s drive to seal its legacy and build opportunities,” said Ms Rose. “Kushner cares about what he leaves behind. Kushner worries about the legacy he’s going to build. His wife [Ivanka Trump] is considering a political bid. These kinds of political points will pave the way.”