‘There’s been no change’: Jaded Israelis head to polls for third time in a year, as polarised as ever

Analysis: Diplomats tell The Independent they are so convinced of a deadlock, they are preparing for a fourth and fifth vote

Both the Blue and White party and Likud have failed to form governments at two elections in the last year (Reuters)

It’s Groundhog Day in Israel. For the third time in less than a year, the country is holding a general election. Despite the colossal expenditure of funds and fierce mudslinging on many sides, all the polls point to yet another deadlock.

The two frontrunners – Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and the “Blue and White” alliance headed by ex-army chief Benny Gantz are, once again, neck and neck.

According to polls published by Israeli media outlets on Friday, neither rival will be able to sweep the majority of 61 in the 120-seat Knesset needed to form a government on Monday.

Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc of political parties have nudged forward but are still around four seats shot.

The centre-left bloc, led by Blue and White, are dwindling, again with no majority on the horizon.

The Joint List, a coalition of Arab-majority parties that is unlikely to sit with either side, is once again hovering around 14 seats.

And so three days before polling stations open, the only point that all pollsters and parliamentarians can agree on is a certain stalemate, triggering fears of yet another election.

Foreign diplomats have even told The Independent privately they are so convinced of a deadlock, their teams are preparing for a fourth and fifth vote, which would push into 2021 and mean the country had been operating with a caretaker government for three years.

“There has been no change since the first of these elections last April. Nobody has changed their views,” said Rafi Smith, a prominent Israeli pollster, with exasperation.

“Since April, the Likud’s coalition has not managed to nudge past 61 seats. On the other side, Gantz’s has not been able to get past a majority without the Arab parties.” The Arab parties are not keen to join Blue and White, he says.

He said the country’s fundamental ideological positions had not changed either. Nearly 70 per cent of the Jewish voters remain centre-right or right. Among the Arab citizens of Israel, the majority stick to voting for the Joint List.

“We have two states here in Israel, Bibi versus anti-Bibi. That has divided the country and has not changed.”

At the heart of the crisis is Mr Netanyahu, who has secured the accolade of being Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, but also Israel’s first premier to be indicted while in office.

Because no side can build a coalition, voters have put their hopes in a unity government between Blue and White and Likud. But Likud has refused to join forces if Mr Netanyahu does not remain prime minister. Gantz’s alliance say they would only agree to share the prime ministership if he is acquitted.

Since the first of these unprecedented elections in April, the prime minister has been campaigning under the shadow of three corruption cases on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

Mr Netanyahu has denied any wrongdoing, calling the investigation a political witch-hunt.

We have two states here in Israel, Bibi versus anti-Bibi. That has divided the country and has not changed

Rafi Smith, pollster

He was formally indicted in January this year and his trial is set to begin just two weeks after the election.

The allegations have driven a wedge in the nation’s 6.5 million voters: on one side are his supporters who believe the trial is a “leftist deep state” conspiracy, on the other are those who say he cannot rule while distracted by the legal proceedings.

According to Danae Marx of the Israel Democracy Institute, 44 per cent of Israelis want Netanyahu to head either a unity or right-wing government, while 41 per cent want Mr Gantz to head either a unity or centre-left government.

The difference in popularity between the two men on their own has consistently floated at around 10 per cent.

No matter how fierce the campaigns are on either side, those numbers do not shift.

That is summed up in telling statements from representatives on both sides who even use similar language.

“The red line for us is Netanyahu not being prime minister,” said Eli Hazan, the Likud’s foreign affairs director and a self-proclaimed “Bibi fanatic”.

“Nothing is going to change about the popularity of Netanyahu within the Likud. The party has had four leaders in 70 years.

“The Likud does not replace the leader. If the leader is under persecution, we are all under persecution, we close ranks,” he said.

In Tel Aviv, member of Knesset (MK) Izhar Shay, who is likely to be re-elected, was equally vehement.

“There is one simple red line: the name of that red line is Benjamin Netanyahu,” he said, adding he believed Israel’s democracy would be risked if he were to win.

“We are very concerned about any possible actions he takes to save himself from the legal proceedings he faces.”

The entrenching of the positions has played out in the elections campaigns, which have become nastier.

This week, Mr Gantz doubled down on his chief rival.

“The man charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust has nothing to sell other than disseminated lies and slung mud,” he tweeted. “Israel needs a full-time prime minister.”

The red line for us is Netanyahu not being prime minister

Eli Hazan, Likud party

Their slogan is now “It’s either Blue and White or Erdogan” referring to lack of freedoms under the Turkish president’s rule.

Meanwhile, the Likud has accused Mr Gantz of siding with the Arab politicians in Israel. In a campaign of posters, slammed as racist, Mr Gantz is shown with prominent Knesset member Ahmed Tibi, an Arab citizen of Israel and head of the Joint List.

Both sides have been scrambling to get additional votes to nudge through a majority.

Mr Hazan, from Likud, claims party data shows that just over 250,000 natural Likud voters in cities like Ashkelon and Ashdod did not bother to vote in September. The party has therefore been focusing on combating voter fatigue and increasing turnout.

Mr Shay said that Blue and White was meanwhile honing in on some 70,000 new young voters, who are more interested in climate change and soaring rent prices than Mr Netanyahu’s international relations prowess.

The “wildcard” – as most analysts have dubbed him – is potential kingmaker Avigdor Lieberman, whose withdrawal from Mr Netanyahu’s government in 2018 triggered this merry-go-round of elections.

Mr Lieberman’s right-wing Yisrael Beitenu party is predicted to sweep seven possibly decisive seats on Monday and has yet to say which bloc, Bibi’s or Gantz’s, he would join.

While he has come out strongly against Mr Netanyahu and the ultra-orthodox parties that make up that bloc, he has also refused to work with a government led by Mr Gantz.

That said, he has also vowed there will be no fourth election: a reality many in Israel are preparing for.

As Israeli writer Yossi Verter in the newspaper Haaretz put it: “The chance of a fourth round of elections is the most secure bet at the moment.”