Iraqi people wait in fear to see how Saddam will celebrate his birthday

Last year, as in every year for a generation, the people of Iraq celebrated Saddam Hussein's birthday with marches, military parades and endless television coverage. This year, many Iraqis believe he is planning his own deadly birthday surprise for them and the American and British forces that ousted his regime.

Among ordinary Iraqis there is a widespread fear that forces loyal to Saddam will launch some sort of strike, possibly using weapons of mass destruction, against the occupying troops and civilian population on the former leader's official birthday, April 28.

While they have no evidence of this, the problems of obtaining hard information mean the rumours are flourishing among all age groups and classes.

"Everybody is talking about how something is going to happen next week," said Nadine Hamed, a university student. "Everybody you speak to is afraid." Mr Hamed said that last year Saddam's birthday was celebrated in Soviet fashion with marches and events across the country. Iraqi television, having changed its name to The Birthday Channel, showed nothing but tributes to the leader. The day was declared a national holiday and children were forced to take part in the celebrations. "We did not actually feel like celebrating," Mr Hamed said. "But there were people from the [Baath] party who came round to make sure we made a big show of it."

The rumour mill over Saddam and his "birthday surprise" reflects the grip of fear he still exerts on many ordinary Iraqi civilians, partly because he and most of of his senior leadership are still at large.

Of the 55 most wanted regime officials on the list drawn up by America, only 11 have been captured. The most recent to be held were the commander of the air force and the head of military intelligence.

Zaab Sethna, a spokesman for the Iraqi National Congress, a group based in London whose leader, Ahmed Chalabi, is one of many vying for influence and power in the new Iraq, said it had received numerous reports of sightings of Saddam and his officials. The congress was convinced he was still in Iraq. "We have a report, now [six] days old, that he attended a meeting of Baathists at a farm on the edge of Baghdad," he said.

"There was also a report that [Saddam's son] Qusay was seen in [the Baghdad suburb of] Khadimiyah. We are getting this information about 24 hours after it happens. It used to be 48 hours after it happened.

"Pretty soon we will be getting information that is actionable." Mr Sethna said the location of the sightings fitted into an arc that stretched from the city of Ramadi, west of Baghdad, north-eastto Bacuba towards the Iranian border. This is the one of the few areas in Iraq where there are no Allied forces.

"They are putting up posters of Saddam in the streets in these places," he said. "The Baath party had a post-occupation strategy. They have money and guns and their strategy is to create disorder and prevent a return to normality.

"They want to let people know that they are still there and to make people think that they will be back." Unlike in the hunt for Osama bin Laden and al-Qa'ida, America has not publicly offered rewards for information on Saddam and his leadership.

Efforts to locate the former president and his senior officials are secret but special forces and officials from law enforcement agencies have been searching properties formerly owned by them.

One of the latest breakthroughs in the hunt came on Wednesday when General Zuhayr Talib Abd al-Sattar al-Naqib, the former head of the Directorate of Military Intelligence, surrendered to US troops. His directorate monitored the loyalty of Iraq's regular army, provided security at military facilities and collected intelligence on military forces opposing the country. Mr Naqib was number 21 on the 55 most wanted list.

In an interview with the Los Angeles Times before he gave himself up, Mr Naqib, 56, said he made no apologies for his involvement in Saddam's government, though he claimed he did not always agree with the leader.

"This was the military. You move up from position to position. I was just following orders," he said. "But I will not answer whether I believed in the regime."