What happens when the Gaza ceasefire ends?

The US says it will not support Israel’s push to the south without a plan to protect civilians

A four-day ceasefire in Gaza set to begin on Friday will allow for the release of 50 hostages, the delivery of desperately needed humanitarian aid, and a brief respite from the relentless bombardment of the densely populated territory for more than two million civilians.

But what happens when it ends?

The short answer is that the war will continue, and it may be even bloodier than before. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu put it bluntly on Wednesday during a live address about the hostage deal. “The war continues,” he said. “We continue until we have achieved complete victory.”

Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said he hoped the deal would eventually lead to "serious talks" on resolving the conflict, but the Israeli army has made it clear they do not consider this a precursor to more talks. Lt Col Richard Hecht, the Israeli army’s international spokesperson, said they would not even call it a ceasefire.

“Our terminology is not ceasefire, our terminology is an operational pause,” Lt Col Hecht said.

Israel’s United Nations ambassador, Gilad Erdan, said that “as soon as the pause ends, we will continue striving towards our goals with full force." Chief among those goals was to “eliminate all of Hamas’ terror capabilities.”

That will be no easy feat. Israel has repeatedly stated that it will be satisfied with nothing less than the complete destruction of Hamas. That could take months or years.

Moty Cristal, a crisis negotiator involved in previous exchanges and a former member of the government, told The Independent that there is no appetite within Israel for ending the war any time soon.

“Something changed on 7 October. The magnitude of the national trauma changed something in the Israel psyche, the military mindset. We are no longer afraid of long wars, neither the public nor the military,” he said.

The agreement between Israel and Hamas stipulates that the ceasefire may be extended by a day for every 10 hostages that are released. That leaves open the possibility that fighting may not resume immediately, but when it does, it will likely move in two directions.

Israeli forces currently control Gaza’s coastline and have cut through the middle of the territory, effectively surrounding the north. Aid agencies estimate that some 200,000 to 300,000 civilians remain in the northern half of Gaza. Israel’s bombardment there has targeted places of worship, hospitals, schools and residential areas, and it has justified those strikes with claims that they are used by Hamas fighters.

The Gaza Health Ministry said on Tuesday that Israeli forces had surrounded the Indonesian Hospital, a 110-bed outpatient and surgical facility that is among the final functioning hospitals in the north.

Relatives, friends and supporters of Alon Ohel, who is held hostage by Hamas, take part in a demonstration (AFP via Getty Images)

“The Indonesian Hospital is now in its worst condition. It is besieged on all four sides, and food and medicine are not allowed to enter,” Mounir al-Bursh, the Gaza Health Ministry’s director of hospitals, told the Washington Post, adding that a strike on the hospital compound Monday had killed 12 displaced people and wounded four medical staffers.

Israel claims the bulk of Hamas’ infrastructure is in the north. As soon as the ceasefire ends, Israel will likely continue its bombardment there.

But even as Israel continues its push into Gaza City in the north, it has signalled that it may soon turn its attention to the south, where it believes many of Hamas’ key leaders have escaped to, and where most of an estimated 1.7 million displaced people have fled. Tens of thousands from the north have sought refuge there in schools and tents, and face a lack of food and water.

The Israeli air force began dropping leaflets over the southern city of Khan Younis last week, warning people to evacuate the area in anticipation of an offensive there.

"For your safety, you need to evacuate your places of residence immediately and head to known shelters," the leaflets said, naming the neighbourhoods of Khuzaa, Abassan, Bani Suhaila and Al Qarara. "Anyone near terrorists or their facilities puts their life at risk, and every house used by terrorists will be targeted," the leaflets said.

Just a few days later, at least 28 Palestinians were killed in Israeli air strikes on two residential areas of the city.

Some expect a bombing campaign to resume with even more force following the pause. A Middle Eastern diplomat told the Washington Post that the bombing campaign will likely be “more much aggressive,” the newspaper reported, and that the south will be targeted much more heavily due to the belief among Israel officials that Hamas operatives have escaped to the south.

Those warnings have sparked concern among aid groups.

Catherine Russell, head of the UN children’s agency, Unicef, said that a military escalation in the south of Gaza would “exponentially worsen” the humanitarian situation there, and said attacks on the south “must be avoided”.

Significantly, a potential attack on the south has also drawn criticism from Israel’s closest ally, the United States. The Biden administration has until now given its full support for Israel’s military operation, but several US officials have warned of the dire consequences of turning the offensive south.

“We don’t support those kinds of operations absent a cohesive plan by the Israelis to factor in how they’re going to be able to protect what is now mathematically an increased dramatically increased civilian population itself, because they were evacuated from the North,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday.

“It’s even more incumbent upon the Israelis to make sure, before they begin operations down there, that they have factored in ways in which they can they can protect those civilians who moved at their urging to the south,” he added.

Those words of caution are unlikely to restrain Israeli forces, however. The Israeli government has spoken of its operation in Gaza as a battle against “the enemies of civilization itself.”

Meanwhile, aid agencies say the four-day pause will not be enough to address the severe humanitarian crisis now facing 2.3 million people in Gaza, which will almost certainly worsen in the coming weeks and months.

Jan Egeland, Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council, said four days “is not enough time to address the immense needs after six weeks of fighting, bloodshed, and destruction.”

“Winter is looming, and it will be a disaster to reignite this conflict. Small shelters have housed scores of people, with little food and water and mounting health hazards. Children are traumatised, and many face a future without their parents and siblings. They need urgent, long-term help. This can only happen through a sustained ceasefire,” he said.

Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American lawmaker in Congress, also described the pause as "not enough."

“When this short-term agreement expires, the bombing of innocent civilians will continue. We need a permanent ceasefire that saves lives, brings all the hostages and those arbitrarily detained home, and puts an end to this horrific violence,” she said.