Cabinet sackings plunge Sharon into political storm

Ariel Sharon, Israel's hard man, showed no outward sign yesterday of backing away from his sudden decision to throw out four of his cabinet ministers. The move plunged the country into a political storm in the midst of the long and bloody conflict with the Palestinians.

If confirmed, the sacking of the four from the Shas party will shrink thePrime Minister's coalition, but his aides seemed confident the government would survive with a narrower power base. Today is likely to see some intense horse-trading in which Mr Sharon and the ultra-Orthodox Shas will either mend their differences or he will try to recruit several other small parties to shore up the government.

The Prime Minister said he had no intention of changing his mind. An outraged Mr Sharon dispatched letters of dismissal to the ministers – which do not take effect until early tomorrow – after the government unexpectedly lost the first Knesset reading of an emergency economics package by three votes on Monday. The package cut the budget to take account of the immense economic impact of the 19-month conflict, including the cost of the military offensive into the occupied territories.

The Shas party, including the Interior Minister, Eli Yishai, voted against the government, alarmed by the prospect of cuts in family support to their core blue-collar constituents. The loss of Shas and that of the smaller religious United Torah Judaism party, which also rebelled, would reduce the government's support in the 120-member Knesset from 82 to 60 seats.

Theoretically, this would expose Mr Sharon to the risk of losing a no-confidence motion –raising the possibility of early elections – unless he can bolster his coalition. He is likely to look in particular to the centrist secular Shinui party, and the far-right National Union/ Yisrael Beitenu bloc.

The hiatus spawned speculation about early elections and fresh cries of crisis, reminiscent of the political meltdown experienced in 2000 by Mr Sharon's predecessor Ehud Barak, whose government was hit by a Shas walkout.

Certainly, the defeat of the budgetary package, which goes to a crucial second vote tonight, was a serious setback. And the mere talk of a political crisis is destabilising, and potentially self-fulfilling, in Israel's volatile political arena. However, there is little sign of much appetite for elections. Mr Sharon's biggest challengers, Labour, are his partners in government, lack a popular leader and are still in disarray after Mr Barak's massive defeat last year.

They are acutely aware that Mr Sharon is enjoying a startling surge in popularity among Israelis, who believe the assault on the Palestinians has proved effective.

His chief internal challenger from the right, Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, unexpectedly damaged his public standing by leading a revolt against Mr Sharon within the Likud central committee, securing a vote against the creation of a Palestinian state, which runs against the views of the larger Israeli public. And Shas, which has long been notorious for cynical attempts to pressuregovernments into parting with funds for its educational and welfare networks, is widely resented by Israel's secular majority.

Shas is also damaged by resentment at exemptions from military service for the ultra-Orthodox. It, too, has shown little sign of desire for elections. There was no surprise, then, that the noises emanating from its camp were conciliatory.