Blair's mission to woo Syria is key to Arab support
War on Terrorism: Diplomacy
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Your support makes all the difference.The transformation from 'pariah state' to potential friend is like shedding a snake skin. Two months ago, Syria was regarded by the United States as a rogue nation, a sponsor of 'terrorists'. Then came 11 September, a secret visit from what The New York Times called a 'senior' CIA official, and – yesterday – a house call from Tony Blair.
America and Britain know that their efforts in building consensus among Arab governments not to oppose the Allies' war on Afghanistan could be wasted without Syria's co-operation. They want to be sure the Israel-Arab conflict does not spin out of control, filling television screens with images of dead and maimed Arabs when they are struggling to persuade the world of the justice of their strikes.
Syria is crucial. Damascus funds the Islamic fundamentalist guerrilla group Hizbollah, not least to maintain pressure on Israel to end its 34-year illegal occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights. Hizbollah is based in Lebanon, where Syria has 20,000 troops and exerts huge influence. Encouraged by Iran, Hizbollah continues intermittently to bomb and fire Katyusha rockets at the Israeli troops along Israel's northern border on the pretext that Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon last year was incomplete, because it kept a pocket of land over which Lebanon claims sovereignty.
The conflict sputters along, but it has the potential to explode. In April, Israel bombed a Syrian radar position in Lebanon, killing three soldiers. Another bout of attack and counter-attack could cause the conflict to rear up anew. That would bring the risk of another atrocity such as the 1996 Qana massacre, when Israel killed more than 100 people by shelling a UN compound in south Lebanon. Messrs Bush and Blair know only too well that such scenes would be disastrous in keeping the so-called coalition intact.
Mr Blair is sure to press Bashar al-Assad, the 36-year-old President who took over last year after the death of his notoriously ruthless father, Hafez al-Assad to rein in Hizbollah, and also several Palestinian militant groups with offices in Damascus, such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, who have strong support in the hopeless streets of Lebanon's Palestinian refugee camps.
The latter claimed responsibility for the assassination of the Israeli minister Rechavam Zeevi, an advocate of ethnic cleansing who was singled out by the PFLP to avenge Israel's murder of their leader in August.
In this, Mr Blair will have to draw on all his diplomatic skills if he is to avoid suspicions that he is acting as a mouthpiece for Washington, which in the eyes of many Arabs is unwaveringly pro-Israeli.
Cosying up to Mr Assad is not a particularly savoury task for Mr Blair. Although the London-educated Syrian leader has shown hints of a gentler touch than his father, his government and its dominant Baath party remains repressive. The Prime Minister's visit is certain to outrage Israel's vociferous right wing, but the reaction of Ariel Sharon's government whose intelligence services have clearly known about it for a while is strikingly restrained.
Avi Pazner, an Israeli government spokesman, said: "He is also coming to Israel, and it is in the framework of his tour of the Middle East, so we have no problem with it. It could be a good opportunity for Tony Blair to warn the Syrians that they are playing with fire along our border with Lebanon, and by sponsoring terrorist groups."
Mr Blair has taken the precaution of sending his Middle East envoy, Lord Levy, to Israel to smooth his path before meeting Mr Sharon and visiting Yasser Arafat in the Gaza Strip.
Israel is particularly nervous about any sign of the West and especially America warming its relations with nations it regards as foes. Lord Levy is sure to try to reassure the Israelis that Mr Blair will press Mr Assad over the need to rein in guerrilla groups operating in Damascus. In the past few days, Israeli security officials have noticeably raised their verbal attacks on Damascus above the usual level, and have been organising media briefings describing Syria's close ties with Palestinian militant groups, such as the Islamic Jihad and the PFLP.
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