Ursula von der Leyen: Will German defence minister become EU Commission president?

Politics Explained: She faces a vote on Tuesday, and it’s not a sure thing

Ms von der Leyen is struggling to gain enough votes to become the first woman to lead the EU’s bureaucracy (Reuters)

EU leaders may have picked Ursula von der Leyen as their choice for European Commission president after a series of late-night summits – but she’s not there yet.

The German defence minister has to be approved by the European parliament before she gets the post, and it’s not looking like plain sailing.

If MEPs reject Von der Leyen then member states will have to go back to the drawing board and propose another candidate.

The nominee has been talking to the EU’s different political groups trying to convince them, and she’s not had much luck so far.

The left group was first out the gate to say it would not vote for her – this was mostly expected.

Then, the Greens – who made significant gains at the elections, yet were excluded from the nominations for the top jobs – also said they couldn’t support her. They could have their revenge.

On Thursday evening, the socialist group – the parliament’s centre-left, and its second largest band of MEPs – said it couldn’t vote for Von der Leyen at this point and outlined its concerns to her in a letter.

This is where things start to get extremely tricky, and the numbers start to look very tight. The socialists did not rule out voting for her, but have basically laid out a programme of things she needs to agree to to get their support.

Their demands – it’s a very long list – include an investment programme, opening accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia in 2019, and reform of EU foreign policy. It’s not quite clear how serious they are about all the policies, many of which have been knocking around for ages.

The liberal group, which is now called Renew, has also sent a similar letter.

Von der Leyen needs 374 votes in the 751-member parliament to win: without the support of the socialist and the liberals – the latter of which have kept quiet for now – she has to rely on Eurosceptic groups to vote for her.

The European Conservatives and Reformists, probably the softest of the Eurosceptic groups – and the one to which the Tories are aligned – has said it has an open mind.

Even if it could be convinced – maybe bought off is a better word, because it certainly isn’t on the same page of her ideologically – sneaking through on Eurosceptic votes, especially if she wins under 400 MEPs over, would be a bit of a humiliation for Von der Leyen.

The vote will be on Tuesday in Strasbourg after more hearings. We’ll find out then if she’s done enough to replace Jean-Claude Juncker.