Uncertainty ahead of EU referendum as Irish â¿¿yesâ¿™ campaign is on defensive

The treaty of Nice, designed to pave the way for Europe's enlargement to the east, is under threat from the combined effects of apathy and growing Euroscepticism as Ireland prepares to vote in a crucial referendum tomorrow.

For the first time, the Irish are being asked to endorse a European treaty which, far from bringing the customary promise of more cash from Brussels, would usher in a new, less profitable, era for one of the EU's big cash recipients. With just one day left before voting in Europe's only plebiscite on the Nice agreement, "yes" campaigners are on the defensive. Politicians and pollsters predict a much closer result than envisaged.

On paper Ireland's verdict on Nice should not be in doubt. The Prime Minister, Bertie Ahern's, Fianna Fail party, and the big opposition parties, Fine Gael and Labour, all advocate a "yes" vote. Public opinion has been traditionally supportive of the EU, which, historically, has doled out six times as much to Dublin as it has received in contributions.

But a recent poll conducted by The Irish Times showed 45 per cent in favour of the treaty, seven points down on the previous survey, with 28 per cent intending to vote "no" ­ seven points higher than in the last poll ­ and 27 per cent saying they do not know. The paper concluded that "the evidence of movement from the Yes to the No camp, the high number of undecided voters and the expected low turn-out of 40 per cent are likely to make the final margin considerably tighter".

A rejection of the hard-fought Nice Treaty would plunge into crisis the EU's plans to welcome up to 12 new countries. Each existing member state must ratify an EU treaty ­ and Denmark's initial rejection of the Maastricht treaty in 1992 caused a political earthquake in Brussels.

Behind Ireland's lack of enthusiasm for Nice lies an historical drop in support for Europe, concern about a loss of funding and alarm at Europe's new defence plans. One anti-Nice poster capitalises on these fears with a blunt slogan: "YOU WILL LOSE! Power, Money, Freedom."

Such tactics have proved controversial and the pro-Nice side has suggested that the cash has come from a ragbag of Bible-belt Americans and Eurosceptic British Tories. Yesterday, "no" campaigners hit back, threatening an eve-of-election legal injunction against Mr Ahern for questioning their campaign funding.

While the Irish will continue to benefit from the Common Agricultural Policy, their access to Europe's regional development funds will end after 2006 when cash is switched to the poorer former Communist countries of the East.

Mr Ahern has been trying to rally support for the "yes" campaign, warning that to reject the treaty would result in "deep embarrassment and national humiliation".

* Backed by church leaders, Irish political parties across the board have united in a quiet but determined drive to add a ban on capital punishment to Ireland's 64-year-old constitution.

A referendum tomorrow seeks to remove four outdated references to the death penalty ­ outlawed since 1990 ­ and add an amendment forbidding future governments from reimposing the practice.