Ukraine is in a race against time to steel itself for a Russian summer assault. Western help needs to speed up

Leaders such as Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron used D-Day celebrations to underline their support for Kyiv, writes Kim Sengupta, but the West is struggling to find the production capacity for the shells and missiles the country desperately needs

A self-propelled howitzer operated by Ukraine’s 57th Brigade fires in the direction of Russian positions on the outskirts of Kupiansk (Reuters)

Speaking in Normandy at the commemoration event held for the 80th anniversary of D-Day, Joe Biden declared that the US and the West are committed to unwavering support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, and robust resistance to Vladimir Putin – “a tyrant bent on domination”.

The US president went on to meet Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris to assure him that $225m (£176m) worth of weapons supplies is on its way. It was their first meeting since December, when the Ukrainian leader visited Washington during a congressional impasse over a $60bn arms package for Kyiv.

The bill, held up at the time by Republican opposition, has now been passed by Congress, easing trepidation that Ukraine would face defeat this year without that lifeline. Importantly, the Biden administration, after prolonged hesitation, has belatedly allowed Ukraine to use American weapons, chiefly ATACMS missiles, to strike targets inside Russia – as long as they are not aimed at Moscow and the Kremlin.

The problem now is ensuring that Ukraine receives adequate quantities of missiles and artillery shells. While Russia has put its economy on a war footing, and has secured supplies from countries including Iran and North Korea (and to a lesser extent China), factories in the West are struggling to meet the demand.

The $225m worth of weaponry is for Ukraine’s immediate need in the east of the country against the Russian threat in the Kharkiv oblast and the Donbas, after the capture of the city of Avdiivka. A logjam remains in the longer term, with a search for production capacity.

“If there were two things that we could provide an infinite number of to the Ukrainians to try to turn the tide in this war, it would be artillery munitions and air defence interceptors,” US deputy national security adviser Jon Finer said this week, acknowledging the shortfall in supplies. Away from the battlefield, he added: “There is also a competition taking place in our factories, the factories in Europe, the factories in Ukraine.”

Joe Biden shakes hands with Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris (Reuters)

The European Union failed in its pledge to provide Ukraine with a million shells by the start of March. A $54bn aid package is in place after Viktor Orban’s Hungary stopped blocking the deal. The UK is sending an extra £500m on top of the £2.5bn it had already pledged to contribute in 2024.

Supply and demand also remains an issue in regard to the warplanes Ukraine is due to receive. Getting the jets would enable air combat to take place against the Russian Sukhoi fighter-bombers that have been used to rain down 3,000 precision glide-bombs every month.

Kyiv has said it has at least 30 pilots who are ready to start training immediately in America. But the US administration can only provide places for 12 pilots at a time at the programme set up in Arizona. Two other Nato facilities, in Denmark and Romania, have a similar lack of availability for the task.

Emmanuel Macron announced at the D-Day commemoration that France will donate surplus Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine. Training for pilots can take place in France or other Nato states, like Greece, using the planes. But, going by the F-16 timescale, all that could take up to a year to reach fruition.

The 70th anniversary of D-Day, in 2014, took place amid warnings that Europe was going through a particularly dangerous time. Ukraine, where the pro-Russian leader Viktor Yanukovych had been overthrown, was on the brink of a separatist war. The European Union was in crisis, and the Conservative right in Britain was calling for a “Brexit”. Far-right parties were rising across the continent.

Francois Hollande, France’s president at the time, in his contribution to the British “official brochure” for the event, gave a pointed reminder that, 70 years on from the end of the Second World War, there was a “union of Europe now at peace”. The unwritten but implicit next line was: “But for how long?”

At that time, despite the tension, Putin held a short meeting with the newly elected Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko at the commemoration. Afterwards, the Kremlin spokesperson said the two leaders had agreed that “the bloodshed in eastern Ukraine must end, and a comprehensive long-term agreement come into place while there is time”.

Time is a factor that is now more critical than ever for Ukraine. Supplies are needed to combat an expected Russian offensive in the summer. Far-right parties, many of them sympathetic to Moscow, are at their strongest in Europe since the Second World War. And looming on the horizon is the possibility of Donald Trump, accused in the past of being the Moscovian Candidate for the White House, winning the US election in November.