Ukraine is increasing the pressure on Putin – it cannot afford support from the West to slip now
With Joe Biden calling on Congress not to undermine US support for Kyiv, Askold Krushelnycky writes that Ukrainian officials are clear that their allies are staunchly behind them despite some recent political setbacks
A meeting of EU foreign ministers in Kyiv that the bloc hailed as “historic” came at a difficult time for the Western alliance that has poured weapons, money and support into Ukraine’s fight against Vladimir Putin’s forces.
Kyiv was facing two bruising political blows as, America, her most important supporter in the war against Russia, excluded aid to Ukraine from an emergency congressional bill to prevent a government shutdown – while a pro-Kremlin candidate won the biggest share of votes in a parliamentary election in neighbouring Slovakia.
Removing the aid to Ukraine was the price right-wing members of the US Republican Party demanded for a last-minute deal on Saturday to avoid the shutdown. Several supporters of Donald Trump were among those kicking up a stink. The victory in Slovakia of right-wing populist Roberto Fico had also been brewing; his SMER-SSD party garnered the most votes. While SMER-SSD fell far short of an overall majority, he has been given two weeks to negotiate a coalition government.
Slovakia has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine until now transferring, for a country of its small size, an outsize amount of military aid to Kyiv. But during his campaign, Fico promised that, if elected, he would not send a “single more bullet” to Kyiv and declared he wanted closer ties with Moscow. His pro-Moscow stance is similar to that of his fellow right-wing populist, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban, who has been reticent to fall in with European Union sanctions.
President Joe Biden has called on Congress to push through more Ukraine aid. “We cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support for Ukraine to be interrupted,” he said on Sunday. “I can reassure [Ukraine] we’ll get there, that we’re going to get it done.”
Washington has supplied Ukraine with around £37bn in military aid since Russian president Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion in February last year and Biden has requested another $24bn.
That was the backdrop for the EU foreign ministers meeting in Kyiv, which the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said was the first such summit outside existing EU territory. Borrell said that the meeting showed Europe’s staunch support for Kyiv and that he had proposed an EU spending package for Ukraine of up to €5bn (£4.3bn) for 2024 which he hoped to have agreed by then. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, was also at pains to point out that they still believe in support from the US, with Kyiv knowing it has to walk a tightrope in keeping its allies onside while also pushing them for more weapons.
“We don’t feel that the US support has been shattered... because the United States understands that what is at stake in Ukraine is much bigger than just Ukraine.”
“I think it was an [isolated] incident,” he said. “We have a very in-depth discussion with both parts of the Congress – Republicans and Democrats." Kuleba also said that it was “too early to judge” the impact on Slovakia of its latest election.
As he has repeatedly done, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky told the foreign ministers that his country needs “defence support” to beat back Russia’s invasion, with weapons a key part of that.
“I am sure that Ukraine and the entire free world are capable of winning this confrontation. But our victory depends directly on our cooperation with you,” Zelensky said.
It comes as a row simmers between Ukraine and another of its neighbours and closest allies, Poland, over grain exports. Ukraine’s grain exports, key to its economy, have been severely disrupted by Russia’s naval blockade of the Black Sea and Ukraine has been shipping grain through neighbouring countries, including Poland.
But some of the grain has been sold in Poland, depressing prices for local farmers – a crucial section of the country’s voters. With parliamentary elections later this month and a predicted close result, the ruling party has sought to restrict t the passage of Ukrainian grain through Poland. The row grew into threats by Poland to end weapons supplies to Ukraine.
These unwelcome political jolts have dampened Kyiv’s attempts to maintain an upbeat appearance. But it’s one thing to bravely shrug off horrors inflicted by an enemy and much trickier to remain sanguine in the face of attacks by friends.
Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine last year – when it was predicted Russian forces would capture Kyiv in three days and the rest of the country within weeks, has proved an embarrassment. But the Kremlin will always look to exploit any potential cracks it sees in support for Ukraine, with Putin seemingly willing to hang on in there because of a confidence that Western support, predominantly in America, would falter and fade leaving Ukraine vulnerable.
Kyiv needs its allies to stand strong. With Donald Trump looming large over the US presidential election in 2024, Putin would relish him returning to the White House. Trump never misses an opportunity to praise Putin, calling him a “genius” when he invaded Ukraine.
The possibility that Trump, or another Republican, will be voted into the White House offers Putin a reason to continue the slaughter. Hopefully, anxiety that the weapons flow may diminish won’t spur Kyiv into haste to make gains before winter weather sets in.
Britain has been a staunch ally of Kyiv, committing £4.6bn in military assistance. As the Conservative Party’s annual conference got underway in Manchester, Ben Wallace, former defence secretary, revealed he had recommended to Rishi Sunak that Britain should send £2.3bn in military support to Kyiv. He said Germany has overtaken the UK as Europe’s largest military donor to Ukraine.
Wallace said: “This war can be won. Vladimir Putin is failing. Just as the human emotion drives Ukraine to success, it is also the inescapable flaw in Putin... Romance, ego and revenge drove Putin to cross into Ukraine, and it will be his undoing.”
It is that level of belief that Kyiv believes it needs from its allies.
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