The key to Ukraine punching through Russia’s defences – and putting Putin’s forces on the back foot

Kyiv has been stepping up drone attacks on Crimea as it looks to break key supply lines from the Russian-occupied peninsula, writes Askold Krushelnycky in Ukraine

Ukrainian troops fire on Russian positions across the frontline in the Zaporizhzhia region (Viacheslav Ratynsky/Reuters)

Long-range strikes by drone and missile and a raid on territory in occupied Crimea that took Russian forces by surprise – all part of Kyiv’s recent push towards the peninsula that is a symbol of Vladimir Putin‘s territorial ambitions.

Perhaps most significant of all is the capture of the key village of Robotyne, about three hours drive east of Crimea. Gaining that foothold will help Ukraine build a foundation to punch through to the coastline of the Sea of Azov.

The Kremlin’s occupation forces indeed rely on those coastal routes for everything to maintain their fighting ability in a number of areas of Ukraine. Without them they would be dependent on supplies coming across the Kerch Straits on the Kerch Bridge from Russia to Crimea, the longest in Europe, and which has already been shown to be spectacularly vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. So cutting that coastal route would be a game-changing triumph for Ukraine. It would split the Russian lines in the region.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has long spoken of the need for Ukraine to retake all areas of territory occupied by Russia, including Crimea. The peninsula was illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014. The Kerch Bridge connecting Russia to Crimea, which has been attacked a number of times, is one of Putin’s major infrastructure projects – one he opened personally.

Crimea has appeared more regularly in Ukraine’s military updates in recent weeks. To mark the 32nd anniversary of independence last week, Ukrainian special forces claimed to have carried out a raid into occupied Crimea catching Russian occupation forces completely off guard. The special forces said they inflicted casualties during a firefight with Russian troops and then withdrew without suffering casualties themselves. To back up their claims they showed a video of soldiers raising the Ukrainian flag with the sound of shooting in the background.

This all comes in the context of Ukraine’s broader offensive. Kyiv’s troops have been engaging the Russian Army in three separate zones in the country’s north east, where intense fighting is happening around the Ukrainian-held town of Kupiansk which Russian forces are trying to capture, along the eastern front focused on the symbolic ruined city of Bakhmut and in the south near the borders of the Zaporizhzhia region – the area around Robotyne.

Ukraine is aware that its offensive is not moving as swiftly as it would have liked when it began earlier in the summer. And there have been rumblings from some in the West that Kyiv might be spreading its resources too thinly across the 600-mile frontline. Some have advised Ukraine’s top brass to instead concentrate on the main task of breaking through to the Azov Sea to cut that all-important land bridge from Russia to its occupation forces in southern Ukraine and Crimea.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky had tried to downplay expectations that this summer’s offensive would yield similarly dramatic results to Ukraine’s sweeping gains in the Kharkiv region last September, saying, even as it began, that it would not play out like a swiftly paced, feelgood Hollywood movie.

The main reason for the slow advance is that Russian forces had months to prepare formidable triple-layered defences. This included densely sowing with mines and zeroing in artillery pieces on the territory Ukraine’s soldiers and vehicles would have to cross before being able to reach sturdily fixed fortifications and elaborate trench and tunnel systems protecting Russian soldiers.

A Ukrainian serviceman walks near a destroyed Ukrainian tank in Robotyne (Reuters)

Kyiv had also warned that, despite receiving large quantities of modern weapons from its allies, it did not have everything it needed, particularly air power, to penetrate the defences. And Ukrainian political and military leaders were not prepared to send their soldiers to their deaths en masse in the sort of callous, suicidal, human wave attacks employed by Russian commanders in this war.

Yet despite Kyiv’s cautious approach, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have died or been maimed as they have edged forward through the minefields. While in the north east and the Bakhmut front neither side has made progress, Ukrainian forces have moved forward by some ten, blood-drenched miles, towards Robotyne.

That is still around 50 miles from the Azov Sea, and some of Kyiv’s allies say that is too far for Ukrainian forces to reach before the bad weather sets in making any advance a still more arduous slog. However, Ukrainian commanders have still not committed to the offensive the lion’s share of the modern, Western tanks and other powerful armoured vehicles and equipment they have received from those same allies.

They are still probing for weaknesses in the Russian lines and if or when they find them, that is where they will send in those resources in the hope of overwhelming and then chasing Moscow’s forces all the way to the sea.

Military observers have said that even if Ukrainian forces do not reach the coast they are nearing a distance from which they will be able to shell and disrupt vital Russian supply routes. The type of attrition of Russian resources that will make a difference moving forwards.

The Kerch Bridge connecting Russia to occupied Crimea after an attack by Ukraine (AP)

Ukrainians have had to depend on inventiveness, cunning and deception to counterbalance Russia’s vast advantage in numbers of troops and quantities of weapons. And it keeps pushing the West for more help, including fighter jets.

The Ukrainian government also announced that its intelligence services had persuaded a Russian pilot to defect with his Mi-8 helicopter. The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, Kyrylo Budanov, said his people had arranged for the pilot’s family to leave Russia and secretly get refuge in Ukraine ahead of his defection. Exactly when and where the Mi-8 landed on Ukrainian-held territory is unclear and Budanov said two other helicopter crew members, who had been unaware of the defection conspiracy, were killed trying to escape once they realised they were in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has not reacted yet to the announcement of the defection which, along with continuing Ukrainian drone strikes against targets within Russia, including Moscow, on top of other strikes on Crimea, are proving uncomfortable for Moscow.

Add to that the fatal plane crash that killed the founder of the Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose fighters had been a key part of the battles around Bakhmut, helping capture the city, before a short-lived rebellion and march on Moscow. Many were convinced that Prigozhin was living on borrowed time in the wake of that mutiny in June – and the clock ran out last Wednesday when his plane plunged to the ground during a trip from Moscow to St Petersburg.

Putin has always dealt ruthlessly with any challenge to his absolute rule and Prigozhin’s death has sent a clear message to anyone else thinking about opposing him, even if the Kremlin has denied involvement.

But does being forced to eliminate someone he praised for delivering one of the few, albeit Pyrrhic, victories in his war against Ukraine really make Putin’s position seem impregnable?

Or does it rip the camouflage off a system that is fraying dangerously? A situation that Ukraine is looking to exploit in any way it can.