Why Ukraine’s plea for Nato membership is such a challenge for the West

Kyiv has been clear that it wants a pathway to join – but some nations are wary about moving at speed and provoking Moscow, writes Chris Stevenson

A Ukrainian serviceman of the 10th Assault Brigade Edelweiss fires a D-30 cannon towards Russian positions at the front line, near Bakhmut, Donetsk (AP)

For Ukraine, what it is asking for has been simple – a pathway to membership of Nato to protect its future in the wake of Russia's invasion. For its Western allies however, making that a reality is not so straightforward.

The advantages of membership for Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky are obvious. Article 5 of the alliance treaty is a cast-iron mutual defence clause that has US, UK and French nuclear weapons at its core. Given the vast swathes of destruction that Moscow’s aggression has wrought, being given a seat at the Nato table would also give Kyiv the extra layer of security needed during what will be a long period of reconstruction (whenever that comes).

They hoped such a pathway would be granted at a Nato summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. But the alliance itself is not all singing from the same hymn sheet, despite repeated espousals of unity from Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg and many member states. For the 31 states in Nato, it comes down to just how willing they are to provoke Moscow, and whether the oft-discussed Article 5 is something that comes instantly or if there are caveats given the fact that Ukraine is already at war. The Kremlin made clear on Monday that “Ukraine’s membership in Nato will have very, very negative consequences”.

While some Eastern European members have been pushing for a swift timetable to admit Ukraine, given their own misgivings about Russia’s action near their borders, a number of Western nations are more cautious, aware that a bond built on collective defence can only hold secure if all believe it is strong. Making that commitment to Ukraine now just isn’t practical, as even Kyiv has come around to understanding. “It’s a commitment that we’ve all made no matter what,” US president Joe Biden said recently.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky is pushing for Nato acceptance (AP)

Offering Ukraine membership if the war ends doesn't work, either. It gives Moscow an incentive to keep the war going, allowing Vladimir Putin to keep pushing one of his narratives that the West is trying to claim Ukraine to weaken Russia. Such a move might also harm any potential peace talks, if Ukraine cannot achieve its aim of pushing Russia from its territory completely.

Zelensky is clear there is no time to waste. Tweeting as the summit began, he said it would be “absurd” if Ukraine is not invited to become a Nato member and that uncertaintly over its membership is motivation for Russia to “continue its terror”.

He said: “It’s unprecedented and absurd when time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership. While at the same time vague wording about ‘conditions’ is added even for inviting Ukraine.

“It seems there is no readiness neither to invite Ukraine to Nato nor to make it a member of the alliance”.

But Nato members know that long-term security guarantees to Ukraine, to prevent future vulnerability to attack from Moscow, makes sense. It will boost a democracy that has been put under extreme pressure by Moscow’s actions and will mean that a now battle-hardened army will also help Nato’s military strength. At issue is just how the framework for entry is structured. Nations like the US are also reticent to offer too much of a fast-track, knowing that it will set a precedent that could affect requirements that have become standard for membership – such as security reforms, and clamping down on corruption. Something that Kyiv has admitted it still needs to get a handle on, even as it tries to do so in the middle of a war.

For Kyiv, the frustrations are understandable. It was given a vague promise of membership back at a summit in Bucharest in 2008, without a realistic timetable for entry. Zelensky and his government know that the political will for membership is now at its peak, with a number of nations having said it belongs within the alliance.

The Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg (AP)

Who knows where things will stand in the future? Turkey’s actions have offered an illustration that it is not often straightforward. Beyond Ukraine, both Finland and Sweden applied for Nato membership in the wake of Russia’s invasion, with Helsinki completing the process earlier this year. The assumption was that Sweden would follow suit at this summit, but the process was held up by Turkey. On Monday night Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan finally agreed to support Sweden’s bid to join Nato.

Earlier, Mr Erdogan – never one not to take advantage of an opportunity – threw an extra spanner in the works, calling on European countries to “open the way” for Turkey to join the European Union.

It was the first time that Mr Erdogan linked his country’s ambition to join the EU with Sweden’s efforts to become a Nato member. “Turkey has been waiting at the door of the European Union for over 50 years now, and almost all of the Nato member countries are now members of the European Union,” Mr Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul before leaving for the summit in Lithuania. “I am making this call to these countries that have kept Turkey waiting at the gates of the European Union for more than 50 years.”

“Come and open the way for Turkey’s membership in the European Union. When you pave the way for Turkey, we’ll pave the way for Sweden as we did for Finland,” he added.

But Mr Erdogan faced pressure to step out of the way of Sweden’s Nato bid from his European and American allies – and finally relented. The move, opening the door for the Turkish parliament to ratify Stockholm’s membership, comes after months of back and forth, plus extensive talks on Monday. No wonder Kyiv wants assurances as soon as it can.

Mr Stoltenberg said he is “absolutely certain” Nato will have “unity and a strong message” on Ukraine membership during the Vilnius summit – but it may not be what Kyiv wants.