Ukraine war to become even deadlier as Russian military machine finally gets into gear

There have been startling, sometimes comical, examples of Russian military ineptitude

The scene outside Kharkiv city hall on Tuesday after Russian attack that analysts fear could soon be repeated in Kyiv and elsewhere (AFP via Getty Images)

Ukraine’s conflict is getting bloodier by the day with the death toll relentlessly rising. But all the indications are that the war is going to get much more lethal in the days to come as Russia attempts to reverse its military fortune with the use of overwhelming firepower.

Combat so far has led to some unexpected results. In simplest terms, Vladimir Putin’s expectations of a swift victory and regime change have not been fulfilled. Ukrainian forces have performed better than some may have thought they would, and Russian forces far worse.

There have been startling, sometimes comical, examples of Russian ineptitude.

Armoured columns have run out of fuel, got lost, even been stolen by locals while parked and left unguarded. Footage has emerged of army vehicles in the northeastern city of Sumy apparently abandoned by the soldiers in charge. Tanks also appear to have been jettisoned, with social media footage of members of the public having a joy ride – though some seem remarkably proficient in driving them.

Considering how long the Kremlin had to plan this campaign, there seem to be some glaring shortcomings. Units have set off on individual operations without adequate fire support or air cover, often telegraphing their movements and getting ambushed by Ukrainian forces.

And given their overwhelming superiority in the skies, the Russians have been remarkably vulnerable themselves to air attacks, especially by the Bayraktar TB2 drones supplied by Turkey.

This in itself is surprising as commanders will have seen the damage these drones did to forces of its ally, Armenia, in the war with Azerbaijan, and against those of another ally, General Khalifa Haftar, and Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group in Libya.

Russia’s Aerospace Force has been largely missing in action despite squadrons being moved to Belarus for ‘‘Union Resolve” – an exercise that as we now know was a dress rehearsal for the Ukraine invasion from the north.

The invasion began with cruise and ballistic missiles destroying early warning radar systems, effectively hobbling the Ukrainian Air Force and also, in some cases, damaging runways at  main air bases. Surface to air missile (SAM) batteries were also hit at a number of sites.

“The logical and widely anticipated next step, as seen in almost every military conflict since 1938, would have been for the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) to mount large-scale strike operations to destroy the Ukrainian Air Force (UkrAF),” says defence analyst Justin Bronk. The aircraft in the Russian armoury – the SU-34, SU-30 and SU-35 – could have crippled Ukrainian air assets at this stage but “this did not happen,” he notes.

There may be a number of explanations for the approach by Russian forces. They may have believed there would be no resistance, and that the population would throw flowers onto the path of the troops “liberating them from fascists”, which has been the Kremlin narrative. Commanders may have sought to avoid taking civilian lives. Or they may simply have underestimated the fighting calibre of the Ukrainians.

But all that is likely to change. Satellite images of a 40-mile Russian military convoy heading for Kyiv has led to foreboding here, and it is just one of many examples of how the Kremlin is likely to ratchet up its operations.

Kyiv has been hit by missile strikes and artillery rounds, varying in intensity by the day, since the start of the war.

On Tuesday night Russia’s Ministry of Defence announced “precision strikes” on buildings of the country’s intelligence services (SBU) and the Ukrainian army’s psychological warfare centre. Soon after, missile strikes targeted the city’s television tower.

There have also been a number of firefights on the streets in Kyiv. Ukrainian authorities have described them as attempts by Russians to storm the city. But the few I have seen appear to have been probing exercises to test defences rather than fully fledged assaults.

Michael Kofman, a specialist in Russian military affairs, says that “sadly, I expect the worst is yet ahead, and this war could get a lot more ugly”.

“Ukraine’s military has performed really well, but I think we are going to see a different Russian approach moving forward,” he notes. “The truth is that large parts of the Russian military have yet to enter the war, with many of the capabilities still unused.”

What form will this different approach take? In Kharkiv, we have seen an example of what could unfold elsewhere. Russians went into Ukraine’s second city on Sunday with armoured personnel carriers (APCs) and were driven out after fierce fighting.

For the past two days Russian forces have been hammering the city with heavy weaponry including BM-21 122mm grad rocket launcher and, it is claimed, cluster ammunition.

Attacks have taken place on civilian targets, apartment blocks and blocks. One of the strikes was in the city’s Freedom Square, where there are some government buildings, but also the city’s famous opera house and concert hall.

As more Russian forces come into play in Ukraine, more cities like Mariupol are being faced with near-continuous shelling. Some, such as Kherson, are surrounded and all the indications are that similar barrages will follow.

Kyiv – the prize Russian president Putin is said to crave – may take a little longer to surround and assault. But the grim possibility is that the price for Russia’s failure to secure a quick victory may soon be paid by countless civilians in Ukraine.