Ukraine: Your questions answered by expert Mary Dejevsky

“Putin’s speech, which constituted his declaration of war, said the intention was not to occupy Ukraine or even change its borders”

A member of the Territorial Defence Forces stands guard at a checkpoint, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine (REUTERS)

If Russia defeats Ukraine, what will it do next? Is anyone paying attention to cryptocurrency? These were just some of the far-ranging questions readers asked an expert, during an ‘Ask Me Anything’ event about the conflict in Europe.

Independent columnist Mary Dejevsky, a key authority on Russian politics, shared her predictions and insight in response to reader questions on 3 March.

Here are eight questions answered by Dejevsky - from why the press aren’t interviewing captured Russian soldiers to how a nuclear threat might work.

If the Russian military defeat Ukraine, will Russia annexe Ukraine entirely or is it more likely a puppet, pro-Russian government will be installed?

It’s an interesting question for me as well. Putin’s speech, which constituted his declaration of war, said the intention was not to occupy Ukraine or even change its borders. This suggests that they want to replace the government, but only occupy/capture what are called the breakaway regions in the east. Even then, it is not clear whether it would be just the area that was held by the rebels before Russia’s invasion, or the whole of those two regions, which would be about three times as much territory. It would still be a relatively small part of Ukraine’s overall territory. Personally, I can’t see Russia wanting to occupy all or even most of Ukraine because of the likely level of resistance. But the same applies if there is to be a pro-Russia government. Ukraine has twice toppled unpopular governments - with the orange revolution 2004-5 and Euromaidan 2014, and there would be even more protest this time, unless force were used, which would effectively mean occupation and all the trouble for Russia that would bring.

Why has the west chosen to not intervene with Belarusian forces? As Belarus is now part of the invasion, would it not be appropriate for NATO forces to target Belarusian military targets?

I think because Belarus would be seen by Russia as being covered by something akin to Nato’s article 5, so that an attack on them could be deemed an attack on Russia and have the same outcome - a Nato-Russia conflict, which Nato is trying to avoid.

Can you explain the lack of information from Ukraine about their captured Russian soldiers? Why aren’t they showing images and why isn’t the press speaking to them?

They don’t show pictures because, although some have been posted on social media, it’s against the Geneva conventions and other international provisions to ‘parade’ prisoners of war. I too have been puzzled by the casualty figures. Part of it is that the Ukrainian side are putting out figures, which seem to me to be unrealistic, though they have rarely been challenged in the reporting, while the Russians aren’t. I have just seen Russian figures for their own casualties which, I think, were around 250 killed.

Is anyone paying attention to Bitcoin & cryptocurrency?! Days before invading, he [Putin] approved as Russian currency. There’s a loophole here to bypass, maybe not all-but some, sanctions than nobody seems to be paying attention to.

People do seem to be paying attention. I’ve seen reports of a lot of doubtful money supposedly going into cryptocurrencies as banking sanctions took hold. But if that’s true, I can’t believe it’s that good for cryptocurrencies in the longer term.

I am worried about the nuclear threat, but it is unclear how it works. How many people are involved in these decisions?

I think there are supposed to be warnings and this is one reason why countries establish ‘hot lines’. I’m not sure the US-Russia hotline functions and there have been a few occasions - Cuba missile crisis, shooting down of KAL007, and I think one other, when it was largely down to the hesitation of one individual in a control room who either questioned or didn’t act on what could have been a reason to press the button. So it’s not particularly encouraging. If someone with authority to do so decided they would, they could.

Could the UN remove Russia from the Security Council? And if so, what is the chance of them doing so?

You know, I don’t know. I imagine that Russia’s veto as a member makes it impossible. Also, the vote by the whole UN earlier this week condemning Russia still left a few supporting Russia and about 40 abstentions.

I also wonder how desirable it would actually be. If Russia were excluded, it would hear even less of the condemnation than it currently does. And the whole UN idea relies on countries big and small being members. Excluding Russia would leave a rather-strange looking global organisation with a big gap in it.

How much of a problem are far-right groups in Ukraine?

There is what I would describe as a marginal problem. After independence and the Soviet break-up, all sorts of unsavoury groups, rooted in the past, mostly 1930s and 40s, when Ukraine was occupied successively by the Soviets, then Germany then the Soviets again, came out of the woodwork - not just in Ukraine. They have a bigger following in the western part of Ukraine, and they have parades from time to time, including in Kyiv, which are generally allowed to happen. They have no part in the current government. Zelenskiy is Jewish and he has a young and diverse government that can in no way be identified or tainted by anything to do with the far-right groups in Ukraine. They exist, but on the fringe. That’s my take, at least.

With the rise of social media making it easier than ever for anyone to document events, do you think that independent media will be more trustworthy than institutions for news regarding Ukraine? How do you think Russia will try to justify crimes committed in the region when they don’t have control over the media?

I don’t know. Social media can be as deceptive and as exploited by others - so manipulative in their own way - as more traditional news sources. I think we all have to be quite careful about judging all sources in conflict situations.

As for how Russia might justify crimes - we will have to see. At the moment they seem to be trying to pin the blame on false-flag operations by Ukrainians themselves designed to blacken the reputation of the Russian armed forces. I suppose that may continue, but it will be quite difficult to maintain, given the number of Ukrainian witnesses to what is happening.

These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by Mary Dejevsky at 3pm on Thursday 3 March. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.

Do you have any topics you’d like to see an expert host an ‘Ask Me Anything’ on? Let us know your suggestions in the comments below.