One year into the job, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky removes his mask

Twelves months after his inauguration, the comic who rose to power now strikes a more defensive figure after spending much of his time in office mired in crisis, writes Oliver Carroll

(AFP)

For a while, Volodymyr Zelensky’s rise to power seemed charmed. First, the one-time comic actor came from nowhere to beat incumbent president Petro Poroshenko in a famous landslide victory. Three months later, he called early parliamentary elections and improbably won an overall majority there too. The neophyte president applied himself energetically to all aspects of the job: war, peace, corruption, reforms, and poverty. Ukrainians, by and large, liked what they saw.

Then the music stopped. From the moment a grenade called Ukrainegate landed in Kiev in September, Mr Zelensky has known only crisis: an impeachment inquiry in Washington; the downing of a Ukrainian commercial airliner in Tehran; continued skirmishes with Russian-backed separatists in the Donbass; public spats within his own team; and a pandemic few in the world predicted.

Unsurprisingly, that has changed a man once better known for his comic masks.

On Wednesday, in his annual news conference marking exactly a year from his inauguration, Mr Zelensky hinted at his own political evolution during a complicated year in office.

Gone was the easy style of the previous year’s meeting – a 14-hour press marathon delivered softly with jokes and a turtleneck pullover. This time around, the Ukrainian president was in a suit, and playing the role of statesman. During the 3 hour affair, the president’s demeanour was harder, more defensive, and plenty more irritable.

Mr Zelensky was angry with the journalists. He snapped when they asked about a colleague who was denied accreditation to the event: “He penetrated the presidential motorcade and you have to question his upbringing,” the president said. An even stranger exchange followed when he was asked why so many of his inexperienced friends were being rewarded with high office. “These are people I trust,” Mr Zelensky replied, before turning to the journalist in question: “And what about you? I’m making you an offer to work with me. Choose your position and answer for your actions.”

Roman Kravets, the recipient of the offer, seemed shocked by the unexpected turn. In comments to The Independent, he said he was disinclined to follow up. “It wasn’t a serious proposition and, in any case, I doubt the president would agree to my conditions,” he said.

Mr Zelensky was also angry with his own team. It was near impossible to get people who weren’t in the business of working for themselves, he complained. “There’s a dearth of good people, honest, professional and results-driven people.” He commented on his controversial dismissal of the reforming customs chief Maskym Nefyodov: “It isn’t enough to be good looking and charming when contraband is flowing.”

The president offered few news lines in what was a tightly-controlled performance. The one sensation of the afternoon was when he hinted at a second term in office contrary to his pre-election promises. He had grown into the role, but it was "down to the people" to rate him. “Speaking honestly, one term isn’t enough to fulfil my promises,” he said, adding “I’ll think about it” when pressed on the question later.

Volodymyr Fesenko, an independent analyst, said it was unlikely Mr Zelensky had planned such an announcement: “He had another two years to decide on running. It’s not what I would have advised.”

Another notable moment saw Mr Zelensky weighing into US politics and a nascent “scandal“ around leaked phone conversations between former US vice president Joe Biden and Petro Poroshenko. Those exchanges were published on Tuesday by Andriy Derkach, a Ukrainian MP linked to Donald Trump’s associate Rudy Giuliani and Russian interests in Ukraine. In truth, the files tell us nothing we don’t know already; Mr Biden has already publicly admitted to what the leaks appear to scandalise. But their publication seems designed to damage Mr Biden and/or Mr Poroshenko.

Mr Zelensky did surprisingly little to distance himself from the conspiracy at Wednesday’s press conference. It was a matter for the prosecutor’s office, he said, before adding, cryptically, that it was “not the last phone call” Ukrainians would hear.

“It was a strange move by Zelensky given the fact Biden is well placed to win in November and he has so far been at pains to remain neutral,” said political expert Fesenko. “My interpretation of it is that Zelensky’s office was more focused on using these tapes as evidence to prosecute Poroshenko.”

Throughout the press conference, Mr Zelensky presented himself in stark and often uncivil contrast to his predecessor. He reiterated a promise to prosecute the former president.”I am different from Poroshenko in every way – physiologically and presidentially,” he said. “I’m honest and uncorrupt.” As far as Mr Poroshenko’s supporters are concerned, of course, those feelings are mutual. According to nationwide polls, they represent anything from 25 to 35 per cent of the electorate.

Other polls suggest that despite the tumultuous year, Mr Zelensky has managed to retain broad support across the electorate. In a survey by the Rating Group released this week, he was projected to perform equally well if there were to be a re-run of the presidential election tomorrow. He scores particularly highly in his handling of prisoner exchanges and on the country’s response to Covid-19. Ukraine has seen relatively few deaths compared to western Europe despite its patchy health system.

Ola Onuch, senior lecturer at the University of Manchester, says the Ukrainian president is one of few world leaders to enjoy a Covid-19 electoral bounce. “For a country with no spare budget, a defunct health system, very limited testing capacity, he has performed remarkably well,” she says. “Our polling shows that a majority of Ukrainians support his decisive and early action on lockdown.”

But the real tests of Mr Zelensky’s leadership are yet to come, Ms Onuch says. Even as Ukraine makes its first tentative moves out of lockdown, millions of its citizens will see themselves falling into the cracks of poverty left by the crisis. Avoiding major calamity will require reform and unified, stable government, something that Zelensky’s chaotic administration has not always provided.

“Zelensky’s office has many competing interests, some of them genuinely reformist and professional, and others more shady,” Ms Onuch says. “He has the devil and the angel on his side and his place in history will depend on who he decides to back.”