Turks face snap poll that may put Islamists in power

Political upheaval in Ankara threatens $16bn IMF rescue package and democratic reforms needed for future EU membership

Turkey will hold to early elections on 3 November, after MPs voted overwhelmingly yesterday for snap polls to end a drawn-out crisis that has seen the ruling coalition crumble and the economy held hostage to political upheaval.

The vote quashed ailing prime minister Bulent Ecevit's battle to keep elections on course for 2004. He has argued that early polls will disrupt a $16bn (£10bn) IMF loan deal to pull the economy out of a devastating recession, and could bring the popular pro-Islamic opposition to power.

But Mr Ecevit has long lost any leverage. His three-way coalition has been hanging by a thread after losing its majority since a mass exodus of Mr Ecevit's MPs. The defectors resigned to protest at the 77-year-old's refusal to step down, despite a bevy of ailments that saw him hospitalised in May and left him weak and often visibly confused.

The political crisis may be over, but Turkey faces another test closely watched by Europe. The question is whether MPs will hold off election campaigning for a few days to pass a set of democratic reforms that must be rushed through if Ankara is to join the next round of accession talks with the EU. The reforms were being voted on at a parliamentary commission and should come before the assembly later this week.

Turkey has long dreamed of EU membership but it is the first time real progress could be at hand. The reform package contains changes such as cultural rights for minorities that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago during a long-running conflict with Abdullah Ocalan's Kurdish rebels that cost 30,000 lives.

All parties in parliament, with the exception of the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP), have said they are pro-Europe. Now they must deliver. "If they keep their word, the way forward will open up," ran the banner headline on the Radikal newspaper.

Other changes include abolishing the death penalty and allowing Kurdish language education and broadcasts.

The nationalists are now the largest party in parliament and deeply suspicious of Europe. They see lifting the death penalty as a ploy to save Mr Ocalan, currently on death row in an island jail. They are also against cultural rights for Kurds, arguing it will foster separatism. But, even without the MHP, the other parties could still muster the majority needed to pass the laws.

Although the number of MPs who have pledged to back the bill ought to guarantee its passage, suspicion runs high that many, aware of the looming election, will balk at backing such controversial plans. Fears are that MPs may prefer to start election campaigning immediately and not show up for a vote on the EU laws. Missing the boat on the next round of candidates would be a setback to Turkey's European dream.

Polls show around 56 per cent of Turks are in favour of joining the EU. The past few weeks have seen a flurry of pro-Europe campaigning, including a nationwide awareness-building campaign by a group called the Movement for Europe 2002. Billboards, posters and newspaper advertisements have proclaimed that it is now or never for Turkey but will Turkish MPs agree?

Radikal columnist, Ismet Berkan, wrote: "I am not so optimistic. I hope our parliament doesn't make us ashamed."

Investors had fretted the political paralysis brought on by Ecevit's health problems and government infighting could wreck a $16bn IMF lending pact to overcome the recession.

Fight for power - the political heavyweights

Bulent Ecevit

The refusal of the 77-year-old prime minister to resign after months of failing health, was a large factor in the political crisis. The leader of the centre-left Democratic Left Party (DSP) fought to keep the polls on their scheduled date in April 2004.

Ismail Cem

Before he resigned earlier this month, he was one of Turkey's longest-serving foreign ministers. The liberal is also seen as one of the most pro-European figures from the Ecevit government. He has set up New Turkey, a rival social democratic party.

Devlet Bahceli

Mr Bahceli, 54, is the leader of Turkey's far-right nationalists, now the biggest part in parliament. Under his leadership, the MHP confounded expectations to come second in 1999 elections. He is the only party leader opposed to joining the EU.

Kemal Dervis

The Economy Minister, a former World Banker and the author of Turkey's standby agreement with the International Monetary Fund. He openly backs Ismail Cem in his bid to set up a rival party to the prime minister's Democratic Left Party.

Tayyip Erdogan

The former mayor of Istanbul leads the Justice and Development Party (AKP). Polls suggest he will be the main beneficiary of an early ballot. Although the party rejects the label "Islamist", Mr Erdogan has his political origins in an Islamic political movement.

Tansu Ciller Opposition leader of the True Path Party. She was Turkey's first female prime minister from 1993-96, and has been central in Turkish politics since then. After scandals and blunders, her political career has been rejuvenated and is a genuine contender.