Russia faces up to significant strategic defeat with Kherson withdrawal

Recapture of the port city would give Ukraine significant leverage in future talks, says Kim Sengupta

Russian conscripts to the Ukraine war at a railway station in Sevastopol on Wednesday (EPA)

Russia’s retreat from Kherson is a significant strategic defeat, and another embarrassing milestone in Vladimir Putin’s increasingly doomed campaign to conquer Ukraine.

Nine months after the invasion began, with the Kremlin intent on imposing regime change in Kyiv, Russian forces have now stopped virtually all offensives – but for one on Bakhmut in the Donbas – and are digging in for the winter.

The withdrawal from the western bank of the River Dnipro means the loss of Kherson, the only regional capital Russia had captured in the conflict, and deals a severe blow to plans to establish a land corridor to Crimea and secure the water supply to the Russian-controlled peninsula.

Most of Kherson’s pre-war population of 280,000 fled during the fighting. Last month, the Russians and the region’s separatist administration ordered a mass evacuation of those left behind. At the same time, Russian reinforcements were sent to the area, as the prospect loomed of Kherson becoming a battleground. But the success of Ukrainian soldiers in cutting the routes into the city appears to have led to Moscow’s decision to abandon the city.

Russia’s latest reverse has led to further criticism from hawkish Russian commentators who supported the invasion. The War Gonzo blog, with more than 1.3 million Telegram subscribers, stated: “Apparently we will leave the city, no matter how painful it is to write about it now. In simple terms, Kherson can’t be held with bare hands. Yes, this is a black page in the history of the Russian army, of the Russian state, a tragic page.”

Ukraine’s government insisted it would not celebrate victory prematurely. Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to president Volodymyr Zelensky, said: “Until the Ukrainian flag is flying over Kherson, it makes no sense to talk about a Russian withdrawal.”

However, the imminent recapture of the city comes against the backdrop of another aspect of the war, with reports that the US is putting pressure on President Zelensky to keep the route of negotiation open with Moscow, warning that a failure to do so could lead to war fatigue among allies who have spent billions of dollars providing military and economic support.

With its increasing success on the battlefield, Kyiv’s stance on talks has hardened, and its demands now include the return of all territory under Russian control – including Crimea and the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’ – along with reparations and the handing over of those who have committed war crimes.

Such conditions are non-starters for talks to take place, and President Zelensky may have to accept that some of his aims cannot be achieved. But Russia’s defeat in Kherson will add greatly to Ukraine’s leverage in any negotiations.