Iliescu set for victory and headaches

WITH RESULTS from Romania's general elections still far from complete yesterday, the one thing on which everybody agreed was that Ion Iliescu, the man likely to be re-elected president, will face a daunting task in trying to form a working government.

Exit poll predictions and partial returns put Mr Iliescu, a former minister under Nicolai Ceausescu, comfortably ahead of his main rival, Emil Constantinescu, the rector of Bucharest University and leader of the opposition Democratic Convention. Mr Iliescu was credited with between 42 and 47 per cent of the vote against 31 to 33 per cent for Mr Constantinescu. With the four other presidential candidates now out of the race, the two men will face each other in a run-off on 11 October in which Mr Iliescu looks assured to be re-elected.

The scale of Mr Iliescu's victory came as a shock to many Democratic Convention supporters, who had been confident that the country would turn to Mr Constantinescu and the promise of a clean break with the President and his Communist past.

'In the end the Romanian people, particularly in the countryside, proved too scared to opt for really radical change,' said Lauremma Ghita at the Democratic Convention's Bucharest headquarters. 'They've decided to play it safe and voted for survival. It's a shame. The cancer of Communism cannot be removed gradually, but has to be cut out in one go.'

The Democratic Convention's plans to introduce rapid market economy reforms and break down the old Communist structures clearly terrified many Romanian peasants, who had been warned that landlords would return to confiscate the land given to them following Ceausescu's overthrow in December 1989. In the cities, industrial workers were warned that 'wild capitalism' (backed by foreign investment) would cost them their jobs and lead to rampant inflation.

While disappointed with Mr Constantinescu's personal vote, the Democratic Convention supporters were nevertheless confident that despite a smaller share of the parliamentary vote - between 19 and 21 per cent - their alliance of 17 parties and groups would be in a stronger position to form a majority government than Mr Iliescu's Democratic National Salvation Front, which polled between 22 and 28 per cent.

Potential Convention coalition partners being touted yesterday included the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania, which polled nearly 10 per cent, and one or more of the smaller parties, such as the ecologist MER party, which broke through the 3 per cent threshhold required to enter parliament. The key to the future, however, lies with the National Salvation Front of the former prime minister Petre Roman, which polled just over 10 per cent and from which Mr Iliescu's Democratic National Salvation Front broke away acrimoniously earlier this year.

If Mr Roman's supporters can be persuaded to return to Mr Iliescu, he may then be able to form a government without relying exclusively on the backing of the far-left Socialist Workers' Party (the official successor to the Communist Party) and the far- right Greater Romania party. If they back Mr Constantinescu, as seems likely, the Democratic Convention could gain the upper hand in parliament, forcing Mr Iliescu into a 'cohabitation' arrangement, having to work with a government headed by his opponents.

With results based on 70 per cent of the vote not due until tomorrow and full results not expected until next week, few serious negotiations are under way.

Some local observers alleged electoral irregularities, but international observers said yesterday that they were satisfied with the way the election had been conducted and that it displayed none of the violence and voter intimidation seen during Romania's last national elections in May 1990.

(Photograph omitted)