Barnier ousted: what does France’s latest political crisis mean for Macron and the country?

Prime minister Michel Barnier’s government has lost an historic no-confidence vote – what comes next?

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has lost a no-confidence vote that is set to leave France at risk of entering 2025 without a government or a budget.

Mr Barnier, who has been in the job for less than three months, must now tender his resignation and that of his government to President Emmanuel Macron, who ushered in the crisis by calling a snap election in June. Not since 1962 has a French government been brought down by a vote of no confidence.

The left-wing coalition New Popular Front, and the far-right National Rally (RN) - usually at odds - united against Mr Barnier, amassing enough votes to bring the government down.

Here are some scenarios for what the next few weeks may bring:

Macron caves into the demands from the far right over the budget

Mr Macron's surest path to naming a new prime minister able to form a government and pass a budget before the end of the year is to yield to the budget demands of Marine Le Pen's National Rally.

Mr Barnier's draft budget had sought to cut the fiscal deficit, which is projected to exceed 6 per cent of national output this year, with €60 billion (£50bn) in tax hikes and spending cuts. It sought to drag the deficit down to 5 per cent next year.

Le Pen and her party have accused Mr Barnier of imposing austerity measures and failing to address citizens' needs.

A caretaker government rolls over the 2024 budget

Mr Barnier's government can stay on in a caretaker capacity to handle day-to-day business while Mr Macron tries to chart a path out of the mess and appoint a new government. If parliament has not passed a budget by 20 December, the government can propose emergency legislation that would roll over spending limits and tax provisions from 2024, pending the installation of a new government and a new 2025 budget bill.

The proposed €60 billion in tax increases and spending cuts, welcomed by investors and ratings agencies, would then fall by the wayside. Le Pen's party has said households would be better off in this scenario, something Mr Barnier's government denies. It says more people will end up paying tax or additional tax if thresholds cannot be adjusted for inflation.

A caretaker government could invoke constitutional powers to force through the 2025 budget

A government can also invoke constitutional powers to pass the 2025 budget by executive order if parliament has not approved it by 20 December.

However, that would be highly risky, jurists say, as it is unclear whether a caretaker government can use such powers. Doing so would inevitably trigger political turmoil.

What does it mean for Macron?

The tumult that has followed Mr Macron's decision to call a snap election in the summer has diminished his standing at home and abroad. While an alliance of left-wing parties, known as the New Popular Front topped the July election and National Rally was the single party with the most votes, Mr Macron’s centrists eventually struck a deal with the centre-right and conservatives to form a government.

Under the constitution, Mr Macron's term in office runs until the spring of 2027. Opponents on the hard left and far right have demanded he resign to take responsibility for the political mess.

As he lacks a majority in parliament, Mr Macron's opponents could shoot down one pick for prime minister after another.

Ms Le Pen says a government reshuffle stands little chance of long-term success, while a dissolution of parliament is constitutionally not possible before July – 12 months after the last election – leaving only one option: Mr Macron steps down.

However, the constitution gives extensive powers to the president in crisis situations. He can call referendums and has the ability to invoke emergency "full powers" under Article 16, drafted by the founders of the Fifth Republic with wartime in mind. The president has responded to demands to resign by pledging to fulfil his role "with all my energy, to the last second".