France coronavirus lockdown has saved around 60,000 lives, new study claims

Nearly 23 per cent of population would have been infected without measures, scientists estimate

Around 61,000 lives have been saved by France’s lockdown over the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new study.

Epidemiologists have estimated nearly 23 per cent of the entire population – or 14.8 million people – would have been infected with the virus by 19 April if the country had not introduced the strict measures one month before.

People have been told to stay at home unless it is essential, for example to get groceries or go to work, all public gatherings have been banned and “non-essential” public places closed in a bid to tackle the Covid-19 outbreak.

“With a month’s hindsight, our study shows that the national lockdown, started in France on 17 March 2020, had an important impact on the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic,” the scientists from the EHESP School for Public Health wrote.

“This unprecedented measure drastically reduced the number of hospital and ICU (intensive care unit) admissions, and prevented a large number of deaths at the national level.”

The study estimated the measures prevented around 587,700 hospitalisations, and more than 140,300 admissions into intensive care across the nation.

The first month of the lockdown also prevented 61,739 hospital deaths, the researchers claimed.

The study developed a model to “reproduce the pre-lockdown dynamic of the epidemic” in every French region, and then looked at how the outbreak would have run without the strict measures.

The scientists said the French healthcare system would have been overwhelmed “in a matter of weeks” without the lockdown.

France has imposed strict measures to combat its coronavirus crisis, with people ordered to show a form explaining their reason for going outside if they venture out the house.

Members of the public are allowed outside to get groceries or for medical reasons, or if they are deemed a key worker.

The government announced last week the lockdown would be extended until 11 May.

France has been one of the hardest-hit countries in the world by the coronavirus pandemic, with more than 158,300 confirmed infections to date.

The death toll for Covid-19 patients stood at 21,340 as of Thursday, according to a Reuters global count.