France’s military spy chief ‘forced out after failing to predict Ukraine war’

France had been an outlier among western allies in not forecasting Kremlin’s full-scale military offensive

(France 24)

France's military intelligence chief has lost his job just seven months after he was appointed because he failed to predict the war in Ukraine, according to reports.

French media outlets said General Eric Vidaud’s departure came after the army had judged his briefings "insufficient", claiming he lacked "mastery of the subjects".

France had been an outlier among western allies in not forecasting the Kremlin’s full-scale military offensive when it came on 24 February.

L’Opinion newspaper said Gen Vidaud was told on Tuesday that he would have to leave the role by the summer because of failings over Ukraine, but that he had decided to step down immediately instead.

The chief of staff of France's armed forces, Thierry Burkhard, told Le Monde last month that French intelligence had, unlike their western counterparts, failed to predict Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

While the UK, US and others remained steadfast in their warnings of an imminent Russian assault throughout January and February, with more than 100,000 troops massed along the border, France had taken a different approach, suggesting that the military build-up was designed to put pressure on Volodmyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president.

"The Americans said the Russians were going to attack, they were right. Our services thought that invading Ukraine would have a monstrous cost and that the Russians had other options," Mr Burkhard told the paper.

Before being appointed head of the Directorate of Military Intelligence (DRM) last summer, Gen Vidaud held the position of Special Operations Commander (France 24)

US President Joe Biden said at the start of the year that Vladimir Putin was likely to "move in" on Ukraine, suggesting it would be a "disaster for Russia".

The UK was also warning in the week before the invasion that such a move was “highly likely”.

A Ukrainian serviceman shoots at a Russian drone with an assault rifle from a trench at the front line east of Kharkiv (AFP via Getty Images)

“An invasion could be imminent and it’s highly likely,” Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, said on 15 February, nine days before the first Russian strikes on its neighbour.

“We know that the Russians are ready to invade.

“What we are doing is using deterrence and diplomacy to urge them to stop an action that would be disastrous for Russia and for Putin’s future as well as disastrous to the people of Ukraine.”

Before being appointed head of the Directorate of Military Intelligence (DRM) last summer, Gen Vidaud held the position of Special Operations Commander, from 2019 to 2021.

The DRM is separate from France’s foreign security agency, the Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure.

l'Opinion said General Jacques de Montgros was tipped to succeed Gen Vidaud.