Falling euro pushes Danish 'No' campaigners into poll lead

The "no" campaign has made a breakthrough in the polls two week before the crucial referendum on Denmark's membership of the euro, finishing ahead of its rivals in three surveys published yesterday.

The "no" campaign has made a breakthrough in the polls two week before the crucial referendum on Denmark's membership of the euro, finishing ahead of its rivals in three surveys published yesterday.

Opponents of the single currency were five points ahead in two polls published yesterday and three points ahead in another, aided by the sinking value of the euro. The findings consolidate a smaller lead taken at the end of last week.

However, the referendum is still far from lost for supporters of the euro because between 15 and 18 per cent of voters remain undecided as campaigning moves into its final phase.

The pro-euro side has so far failed to benefit from the removal of the political sanctions imposed by the 14 EU member states on Austria in protest at the inclusion of the far-right in government. The action against Vienna was widely seen in Denmark as unwarranted interference in the democratic process and the Danish coalition government, which supports entry into the eurozone, pressed for a speedy resolution to the diplomatic impasse.

That finally happened on Tuesday. One anti-euro campaigner said the move had served only to put the issue back on the front pages, handing his side an advantage. "I am certain there was pressure from the government to have sanctions lifted," said Soren Espersen, spokesman for the right-wing anti-immigration Danish People's Party, "but it has hit them like a boomerang with the issue brought back into the headlines."

He added that the "fall in the value of the euro has been dramatic; it seems as if people have lost confidence in the euro".

Last week the Danish Economic Affairs Minister, Marianne Jelved, warned that the fall in the currency's value "could be a problem" and "could be one of the important issues in the rest of the campaign".

Opinion polls during the campaign have painted a picture of a volatile electorate.

When the Prime Minister, Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, announced the referendum earlier this year, the "yes" camp was well ahead. That lead was eroded, turning into a small deficit in the summer. Early this month the "yes" campaign regained a slight poll lead only to lose the initiative again this week. Despite the latest breakthrough for the "no" campaign, most recent survey have failed to give either side any lead bigger than the standard margin of error for pollsters. With so much of the population undecided both sides still expect a close finish on 28 September.

Soren Risbjerg Thomsen, professor of political science at the University of Aarhus, said that predicting the outcome was impossible. During previous referendums, the "no" campaigners have finished strongly and the "June Movement" alliance opposed to the euro is expected to raise its profile this weekend. He said: "However, the 'yes' side has been more honest this time, conceding this is a political matter as well as a question of economics. So perhaps it will be stronger in the last days of the campaign."