Elections may spell oblivion for Haider

Austrian voters are preparing to deal a stinging blow to the extreme right-wing Freedom Party and its flamboyant doyen, Jörg Haider, in tomorrow's general elections. The party is in tatters and polls shows it has less than 10 per cent support.

Mr Haider's sudden appearance on the campaign trail this week may boost that figure, but it will still be down on the 27 per cent in the 1999 elections. His recent electioneering has been accompanied by full-page newspaper advertisements urging voters to stay faithful to him because "he was always there for you".

Support for the Freedom Party had been falling steadily since it entered coalition government with the centre-right People's Party in February 2000, but dived in September when an internal revolt, instigated by Mr Haider, resulted in the resignations of three Freedom Party cabinet members, including the Vice-Chancellor and party head, Susanne Riess-Passer. The People's Party leader, Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel, dissolved the coalition and early elections were called.

Mr Haider, who stepped down as leader in 2000 amid international protest at his party's entry into government, was ready to take over the reins again and lead his party to the polls but a U-turn saw him step back into the shadows.

The move was sudden but characteristic. At the slightest hint of dissent within the party, Mr Haider has repeatedly announced he is withdrawing from the national political stage for good, invariably to announce a comeback soon afterwards. The cyclical periods of quiet from the southern state of Carinthia, where Mr Haider is governor, followed by verbal pyrotechnics, have led many analysts to speculate about the 52-year-old's psyche.

Norbert Stanzel, a political commentator who writes for the Kurier newspaper, said: "There's no denying that Mr Haider has an extremely complex personality structure. You just have to look at his mood swings, from the statesmanlike to the self-destructive ... It's a personality which is a burden on Haider himself."

Until relatively recently, Mr Haider's outbursts had brought him a string of successes. Support for the anti-immigration, anti-establishment and EU-sceptical party boomed under his leadership in the late 1980s and 1990s. The downfall began, when, after securing his party a place in government, Mr Haider continued with his aggressive opposition-style politics against the Vienna coalition in which some of his favourite protégés sat.

Mr Haider is blaming the looming election defeat on "traitors" within his own party, on Mr Schüssel for calling early elections – describing him as a "lunatic" who was "waging a war on the Freedom Party" – and on Brussels, from where "a great deal of money and political persuasion is being invested in destroying right- leaning political movements". Mr Stanzel said he believed Mr Haider "has now manoeuvred himself into a dead-end and can't get out".

Herbert Lackner, a senior editor with Profil magazine, said he was cautious about predictions. "In the past we've so often pronounced Haider politically dead ... This time, however, it is actually different, because Haider has discredited himself within his own ranks." Mr Lackner said he thought that Mr Haider might decide to take over the party leadership again but that it was more likely he would try his luck on the European stage in the 2004 parliamentary elections. He said: "He's been state governor, he's seen that he will never be Chancellor – what else is he is going to do?"