Concern in Brussels that Paris may take harder line

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Relief over France's clear rejection of Jean-Marie Le Pen gave way yesterday to concern that Paris may harden its stance within the EU, making it a more truculent partner in Brussels.

Diplomats were trying to assess the longer-term impact of the French elections, although most said a clear picture would not emerge until the outcome of the National Assembly elections was known. Many officials say it is too early to predict a hardening of policy, but none think the events of the past two weeks will make Paris an easier partner.

One official said: "Clearly, having such a large proportion of voters disaffected does not give Jacques Chirac a position of strength."

France's long-standing opposition to reform of the Common Agricultural Policy – an article of faith for Mr Chirac – is likely to be emboldened by the belief that voters feel unsettled by growing globalisation.

Moreover, the support for the far right may boost French caution about EU enlargement,due to take place in 2004. Surveys have consistently shown a large French majority against admitting as many as 10 new countries into the EU, but the government formally supports the idea.

EU farm reform and the Union's expansion will become prominent issues this year, but most diplomats believe that the dangers of France being obstructive should not be over-stated, partly because enlargement is too far progressed to be stopped. One diplomat argued: "The only danger is that Britain and Germany play into their hands by insisting on agricultural reform before enlargement, allowing France to block expansion by digging in on agriculture."

Another EU official added: "Chirac is a well-known quantity. He's been in his job for seven years and is a familiar face to heads of government who know what his priorities are and will not expect them to change."

Other officials argued that the new government would have to decide quickly between Mr Chirac's tax-cutting promises and its commitment to the EU to balance its budget by 2004, as spelt out at the Barcelona summit in March.

The Barcelona statement said: "Member states will maintain or respect the medium-term budgetary objective of close to balance or in surplus by 2004 at the latest."