Charismatic and religious ex-mayor is the front-runner

Clad in a bright blue bikini, Merve may look as if she's just appeared in an MTV Grind exercise video. But even at the beach, this vivacious international law student is earnest when debating Turkey's political future. Piercings and all, she is on a mission. As soon as she finishes university in America, she's heading home to join the ranks of the pro-Islamic, conservative Justice and Development Party (AK).

"It is not Islamist," she insists, echoing the party line. "It is pro-religious freedom. And it's the only party in Turkey that is not corrupt and wants to get things done."

She is not alone. Led by Tayyip Erdogan, the youthful and charismatic former mayor of Istanbul, AK enjoys a 24 per cent popularity rating. No other party comes close to matching it. Mr Erdogan is the new kid on the Ankara block, unscarred by the graft scandals that dog most other party leaders. And unless the staunchly secular establishment finds a way to bar him, he could become Turkey's next prime minister.

Under Mr Erdogan, Turkey's Islamists have started a public relations drive to drop their dour, dated and ultra-religious image. Youthful, college- educated professionals have replaced the old leadership. Gone are the calls for solidarity with the Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, pan-Islamic unity and isolationist economics. In their place are choreographed press calls with leading businessmen and a pro-European Union agenda.

Mr Erdogan, 48, who was once jailed for inciting religious hatred, says he has changed. "A lot has changed in the world. Ideology is a thing of the past." He likened the transformation to that of communists turning capitalist. He is now apparently in favour of Europe, globalisation and even the International Monetary Fund.

Mr Erdogan and colleagues have learnt to tread carefully. Political Islam in Turkey has had to contend with successive bans over the years. In 1997, the country's first Islamist-led government was ousted by the military and its Welfare Party banned by the courts.

Erdogan is trying to reposition AK as a centre-right party with a "family values" spin, and has called for a referendum to limit alcohol sales.

A recent survey showed that only 28 per cent of the people who said they would vote for AK previously voted Islamist. Butmany secularist Turks believe that once AK takes power it will unveil an Islamist agenda.

Mr Erdogan is facing treason charges for criticising the army in a speech in 1992. He is also the focus of a corruption inquiry for a tender awarded during his time as Istanbul's mayor.

On the street, how can the other political parties hope to beat AK?AK has succeeded where the tired ones have failed at grassroots organising and, in November's elections, is poised to reap its fruits.