Burundi urged to draw back from the abyss

THE Americans have put an aircraft carrier on Lake Tanganyika. That is the latest wacky political rumour in this tense city where rumours often carry more weight than realities. Another rumour says that the French sent troops into Rwanda to dismantle an atomic weapons research establishment.

Into the feverish, devious atmosphere of Bujumbura strode Britain's redoubtable Minister for Overseas Development, Baroness Chalker of Wallasey, this week to add her voice to those urging the country's politicians to reach an agreement before Burundi follows its neighbour, Rwanda, into the abyss. 'I told them the eyes of the world were upon them, and that unless you give the differing groups adequate representation you will not get a resolution that will last,' she said yesterday.

Burundi has had two presidents killed in the last ten months, and the surviving politicians have been trying to agree on a new president and the composition of a government of national unity. Lady Chalker said that an announcement was expected in the next few days. It is believed that the acting president, Sylvestre Ntiba Ntunganya, will be confirmed as president and a coalition government will be formed including members of the leading opposition parties.

'The difficulty is that there is a myriad of parties and their inclusion is the price for reconciliation,' said Lady Chalker.

After Burundi's first multi- party election in June last year, Frodebu, which represents the Hutu majority, replaced a succession of Tutsi governments which have ruled since independence. On 21 October the new president, Melchior Ndadaye, and four senior members of the government were murdered by Tutsi extremists in the army. The country was engulfed by massacres and mayhem as Hutus murdered their Tutsi neighbours and the Tutsi army turned on the Hutu civilians. An estimated 250,000 people were killed and millions made homeless.

It also divided the Tutsi and Hutu communities as never before, and although the fighting has died out, a deep bitterness pervades the country.

The Tutsi opposition split into eight parties, while Frodebu was divided between those who believed it should prevent further bloodshed by making concessions to the Tutsi parties, and those who wanted to establish by force of arms the verdict of last year's election. Although the Tutsis represent only about 15 per cent of the population, they constitute the army and hold 80 per cent of professional positions in the country.

Although most observers and many Burundians believe that catastrophe is inevitable, there are good reasons for predicting that Burundi might save itself. Its politics have traditionally been less hierarchical and absolutist than Rwanda's. In pre-colonial times their kings, drawn from a caste separate from both Hutus and Tutsis, were seen as arbiters between the two ethnic groups. The army is Tutsi, and, being a minority, they are concerned to preserve their status rather than exterminate the Hutus. The Hutus have neither the organisation nor the weapons to wipe out the Tutsis.

Above all the example of Rwanda next door serves as a warning, and has driven the politicians to find a power-sharing agreement whose announcement is said to be imminent. They have missed several self-imposed deadlines already, and are renowned for elaborate and long- winded rhetoric, but they seem determined to finalise a deal. Suggestions that a United Nations force should be sent to impose peace is rejected by the army and the politicians.

'I appreciate the feeling that they do not want outsiders and that they can do it themselves. I was surprised at the confidence they expressed,' said Lady Chalker. She is calling for more UN observers to be sent to monitor human rights and work with the local civilian administration.

Whatever deal the politicians cut in the capital, out in the hills the ethnic war smoulders on. Land is the issue and national reconciliation means the return of refugees who want to reclaim land from which they were driven a year, ten years or 30 years ago. There is no accepted mechanism for settling such disputes. Such a squabble, a random killing, or one mad rumour too many could easily reawaken the foul monsters that lurk beneath the surface.

This is the world in which Lady Chalker tried to encourage some commonsense survival politics this week. She followed close on the heels of a United States delegation dispatched by President Clinton, and a troika of European foreign ministers with a 58-strong entourage. The world's governments do not want to be told, as they were after Rwanda's self-destruction, that they had done nothing to prevent a tragedy.

When asked what effect this sudden diplomatic concern for Burundi would have on its politicians, one diplomat commented: 'They are asking themselves what hidden agenda these foreigners have. Perhaps they think gold or oil has just been discovered in Burundi. It is difficult for these people to accept that they have come just to save Burundi's people from each other.'

GOMA - Fearing possible Tutsi reprisal killings, some 12,000 Hutus a week are fleeing eastern Rwanda to crowded refugee camps across the Tanzanian border, AP reports.

(Photograph omitted)