US mission lowers heat on Kashmir

Every time a high Western official flies from Islamabad to Delhi in these times of crisis, the subcontinent's mood lightens. The sprint through the region by US Under-secretary of State Richard Armitage, which ended yesterday, was no different.

Though even more tight-lipped than Jack Straw, he left the impression that tensions had lessened thanks to his visit. He informed India's Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee that Pakistan's President Musharraf had promised to end cross-border attacks into Indian Kashmir.

A spokeswoman for India's Foreign Ministry said: "We expect, over the next few days, to see concrete steps taken by Pakistan to end infiltration. If and when we are satisfied Musharraf's assurances have been implemented, then we will take appropriate action."

That action could include India returning to Pakistan some of the diplomats it has recalled, according to Mr Armitage. He added: "It's quite clear, at least temporarily, the tensions are down."

Meanwhile, the low-level border war between the nuclear-armed neighbours steadily intensifies. Yesterday India admitted losing the unmanned reconnaissance drone that Pakistan claimed to have shot down a few hours before, close to the Pakistani city of Lahore. And in the High Himalayas, a Pakistani artillery shell exploded in the town of Kargil, injuring a civilian. Kargil was the epicentre of the mountain war fought by India and Pakistan three years ago, but yesterday's incident was the town's first during the current crisis.

Indian intelligence sources also claimed this week that Pakistan has engaged in heavy firing on the Siachen Glacier, the world's highest battlefield, where the two countries have been skirmishing for a decade. Pakistan's aim, they said, is to open new routes for infiltration and explore fronts for a military offensive.

And in readiness for the war that could come later this week, in advance of the monsoon, India's National Security Adviser, Brajesh Mishra, was yesterday in Russia chivvying arms suppliers into bringing forward their delivery of crucial spares for Indian combat planes and helicopters, field guns and naval torpedoes.

Pakistan is slowly being bulldozed by the United States into taking action on the key Indian demand, a halt to cross-border infiltration. If that is achieved, next on the checklist is the destruction of the terrorist infrastructure, including launch pads, staging posts and training camps. The longer the stand-off continues, with perhaps 1.2 million troopsdeployed along the border on hair-trigger alert, the clearer it appears that an underground war is being fought in both Delhi and Washington between hawks and doves on both sides.

The doves, who include Colin Powell and the Indian Foreign Minister, Jaswant Singh, want to give President Musharraf the chance to do what he says he wants to do, so that relations with Pakistan can be moved to a new level without war. "Why fight a war," said one of the dovish tendency, "if you can win without fighting?"

India's hawks have a much bolder vision. They have always hated and resented Pakistan's existence, and they see that a nuclear-armed Pakistan is a constant threat, a permanent cramp on its great-power urges. So Pakistan must be disposed of: either destroyed and incorporated in the Indian union, dismembered into its component provinces or, at the very least, emasculated militarily.

"New Delhi knows there will never be a better time to deal with Pakistan," say analysts at Stratfor, an intelligence thinktank composed of former CIA agents. "Paramilitary attacks are intolerable to India. They also provide an excuse for war to which the United States cannot object, given its views on al Qa'ida and its support for Israel. If India intends to deal with Pakistan, now is the time."

One factor inhibits attack: the danger of nuclear counterattack by a Pakistani leader with nothing left to lose.