The battle over two rivals to decide the fate of Tibet

Appointing a successor to the Dalai Lama will have major political repercussions, reports Clifford Coonan from Shigatse

The Tashilhunpo monastery in Tibet's second city, Shigatse, has been steeped in palace intrigue for the past 15 years, as Marxist-Leninism and Buddhism wrestle for influence behind the curtains and incense smoke in one of the world's holiest places.

Much of the intrigue has focused on two little boys, now grown into 20-year-old men. One of them, Gyaltsen Norbu, is the Communist Party's choice for Panchen Lama, the second-in-command in Tibetan Buddhism who is traditionally the abbot of Tashilhunpo.

The other boy is Gendun Choekyi Nyima, who was discovered by the envoys of the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader whom Tibetans consider a god-king, but was kidnapped by the Chinese government on 17 May 1995 and has been neither seen nor heard from since.

As the Dalai Lama marks his 75th birthday today, the debate over the arcane religious procedure that led to the selection of the youngsters 15 years ago by the different camps has a growing significance. The same process could well be used to appoint a pro-China successor to the highest position in Tibet.

Shigatse is a four-hour drive across the Himalayas from Lhasa, through some of the most beautiful terrain on Earth, and it has a completely different pace of life from the provincial capital. Lhasa saw rioting in 2008 and the resulting crackdown has left the city edgy, but Shigatse is relaxed, and Han Chinese, the dominant ethnic group in China, and Tibetans live in harmony.

Founded in 1447 by Gendun Drup, the first Dalai Lama, Tashilhunpo overlooks a majestic river valley. Colourful prayer flags flap at its walls. The political manoeuvring has gone on behind its sturdy whitewashed walls. The machinations that surrounded the appointment of the 11th Panchen Lama stand in contrast to Shigatse's majesty.

Many of Tibet's 2.7 million people remain secretly loyal to the Dalai Lama's chosen Panchen Lama. In temples, devotion is subtly expressed; in some places you may see a large photo of the 10th Panchen Lama with khatags (Tibetan white blessing scarves) draped around it, and next to it a much smaller photograph of the Chinese choice of 11th Panchen Lama. This displays their reverence to the 10th Panchen Lama, and their lack of support for the Chinese choice of successor. But the Communists and their supporters among the Tibetan Buddhist community, and there are plenty, say it is Gendun Choekyi Nyima who is the imposter.

This Tibetan puzzle hinges on a golden urn and three dough balls. What's at stake is Chinese rule in Tibet.

On 14 May 1995, Gendun Choekyi Nyima was chosen by the Dalai Lama at an elaborate ritual in Dharamsala in northern India, where the Tibetan government-in-exile is based. The signs were aligned, and his name came up three times when chosen from balls of rolled-up barley flour, known as tsampa. The six-year-old had birthmarks on his back that were like signs seen in the Lhamo Latso lake, which is used for prophecies. He was born in the Year of the Horse, and he appeared comfortable in the company of the Dalai Lama's envoy, Ngagchen Rinpoche. He also seemed to know about Tashilhunpo monastery. All very auspicious.

This was a disaster for Beijing's Tibet policy. The Dalai Lama was a dangerous splittist, and the central government needed to keep a firm grip on the second most powerful figure in Tibetan Buddhism if it was going to win over Tibetan sentiment in the restive province.

According to the noted Tibetologist Robert Barnett, the Communist Party leaders in Tibet came up with a ceremony based on arcane provisions made by the Chinese Emperor Qianlong in 1792 using a golden urn to select a lama when there was a dispute. The procedure used tally sticks to choose the Panchen Lama, and when it came down to it, Beijing's chosen candidate had the longer stick. The sole aim was to rule out the Dalai Lama's choice from the list of candidates.

What terrifies the exiled Tibetan Buddhist community is that the Tashilhunpo model looks set to become a template for the succession issue when the Dalai Lama dies. Hao Peng, deputy secretary of the Communist Party in Tibet, said the model could be used to decide who succeeds the Dalai Lama. "The reincarnation of the Dalai Lama and the Panchen Lama has to follow strict rules and has to be drawn from the Golden Urn and approved by the central government," he said.

Since his disappearance, all the Beijing government says about the unseen Panchen Lama is that he is safe and well, and wants his privacy.

The red-robed monk Nian Zha, director of the Democratic Management Committee of Tashilhunpo, when asked about the human dimension to kidnapping an innocent child and hiding them from view for 14 years, said: "I will not answer that question." Instead he stressed the harmonious relationship between the secular Communists and the Tibetan Buddhists of Tashilhunpo.

Meanwhile, Gyaltsen Norbu has long been earmarked as Beijing's choice to usurp the Dalai Lama as the public face of Tibetan Buddhism. He led the tonsuring ceremony of a four-year-old Tibetan boy chosen as the sixth "Living Buddha" in the capital, Lhasa, Chinese officials said yesterday. In March this year, Beijing named him as a delegate to the country's top legislative advisory body, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

The young monk has publicly praised Chinese rule in Tibet, vowing to contribute to "the blueprint of the compatible development of Tibetan Buddhism and socialism".