India election: Turnout high in ‘boost for Modi’s BJP’ as voting enters final stages

‘Our assessment is we are coming back and we are coming back with a good majority’

India’s Narendra Modi attends a rally in Hoshiarpur, Punjab on 10 May (AFP/Getty)

The ruling party of India’s prime minister Narendra Modi is striking a confident tone as the country enters the final stages of a marathon six-week general election.

With only two phases of voting to go and polling complete in 425 of the 543 parliament seats up for grabs, analysts say turnout is on course for a record high since the country’s independence in 1947.

A turnout bump was seen as good news for Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it swept to victory last time round in 2014, when a wave of hope for economic rejuvenation saw them win the first single-party majority in India’s Lok Sabha lower house for decades.

A report released by the State Bank of India’s economic research department after phase four of the vote suggested national turnout was at 67 per cent, and likely to rise further in the final stages to surpass 2014’s 67.6 per cent.

“Now citizens are more aware about their rights and responsibility [to vote],” the report said, crediting the rise in turnout to “relentless campaign by multiple stakeholders, starting from the election commission to civil society [groups]”.

Jai Mrug, a senior analyst from leading pollster VMR, told The Independent that a turnout bump was “something the BJP said it wanted”, as party leaders sought to maintain enthusiasm for Mr Modi after five years in office and to show that the Hindu nationalists’ formidable social media machine could translate into votes on the ground.

“If we break down where turnout has gone up, it appears this has happened in a lot of urban and particularly newly urban areas,” Mr Mrug said.

“Previous Indian elections have been all about rural voters, they were seen as having all the clout in decision making. This turnout among the aspirational classes, those moving in order to try and climb the social ladder, shows an attempt to carve out a new space on the political map.”

The BJP has struggled in the last year to combat the perception that it has let down farmers – a demographic shift giving greater clout to urban voters, Mr Mrug said, might not be bad news for Mr Modi.

Speaking at an event for foreign reporters in Delhi on Friday, the BJP’s defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman said: “Our assessment is we are coming back and we are coming back with a good majority.”

She said the party’s tactic since the turn of the year of focusing the conversation on national security, and away from the government’s disappointing jobs creation and farmers’ rights records, was proving fruitful.

“From the public you get tiny pieces of paper: Will there be another surgical strike? Talk about that. Will there be another Balakot [airstrike on Pakistan]? Talk about that,” she said. “The moment we start talking about it, you see the response.”

Before voting began, most analysts predicted that Mr Modi would be returning for a second term, albeit with a reduced majority.

But that is not to say that a BJP victory is guaranteed. The government is facing an opposition that is much better organised and more coordinated than it was in 2014, with tighter alliances and united “anyone-but-Modi” messaging.

One analysis by a leading Indian newspaper, the Hindustan Times, has argued that while the BJP wanted high turnout nationwide, the biggest spikes have been in states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh which saw dejected Congress voters stay away in 2014.

Their return could be a problem for Mr Modi, given these two populous states alone offer 54 seats in parliament. In the first half of the election, Madhya Pradesh’s turnout this time was 74.9 per cent – up a full 10 percentage points from 64.9 per cent in 2014.

Congress spokesperson Sanjay Jha said negotiations among opposition parties to finalise an alliance that offers a “viable alternative” to BJP government were still going on and a deal would be reached before the election results are announced on 23 May.

“We’ve all collectively recognised the reality that the BJP is losing significant votes, therefore we are mutually exploring the formation of a cohesive and durable government that will fulfil the aspirations of India,” Mr Jha said.

Congress and other opposition parties believe they have successfully maintained their focus on issues including farmer distress and an unemployment rate that, according to leaked figures, is at its worst in decades, despite media coverage that has mostly focused on personal insults between leaders.

The Supreme Court dismissed a petition filed by a BJP member of parliament which called for an investigation into unfounded claims that Rahul Gandhi, the congress leader, held British citizenship. Holding dual nationality is against the law in India.

And at a huge rally this week in Delhi, which sees all seven of its constituencies up for grabs on Sunday as one of the key regions polling in phase six, Mr Modi again lashed out at the legacy of Rajiv Gandhi, the former prime minister assassinated in 1992 and father of current congress leader Rahul Gandhi.

The elder Mr Gandhi had abused an Indian aircraft carrier for a “Gandhi family vacation”, Mr Modi suggested, two days after he sparked controversy by telling Rahul Gandhi “your father ended his life as India’s most corrupt man”.

National security, anti-corruption, the congress party as a vehicle for one family – the statements by Mr Modi and his ministers this week show the BJP is sticking to its guns to the end.

The pitch of public debate over the course of the election has been “acrimonious”, bemoaned the pollster Mr Mrug. “However much it would have been better for democracy to have the election fought on the issues, it’s ultimately turning out to be an election fought on personalities,” he said.