Venezuela: What's behind Caracas' violence and the attempt to oust Nicolas Maduro

Donald Trump has threatened new embargo on Cuba over its support for Venezuelan leader

Violence has broken out on the streets of Caracas, as opposition leader Juan Guaido and his supporters launched their latest effort to oust Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.

The clashes, which saw Guaido’s supporters hurl rocks and security forces respond by driving into protesters, were the result of only the most recent effort to end Maduro’s term in office.

Maduro was first elected in 2013 following the death of Hugo Chavez, a former military officer who led a popular movement and established programmes for the poor using the benefits of Venezuela’s then booming oil-dependent economy.

While much of the political turmoil in Venezuela is driven by politics, there is also a racial element. Both Maduro and Chavez have been mocked by some of the lighter-skinned supporters of some of Venezuela’s opposition parties, which have long attracted votes from the middle class and elite.

The US has long had a difficult relationship with Venezuela, even while it was buying its oil.

What's behind latest protests?

On 10 January, Maduro was sworn in for a second term as president, but most Latin American countries, the United States and Canada denounced his government as illegitimate. His election the previous year was intentionally boycotted by some of the opposition. Most Western nations said it was not fair, though some independent observers said it was. On 23 January, ​Guaido, president of the opposition-controlled legislature, declared himself interim president. The US recognised him and dozens of nations including Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Colombia followed suit. Russia, China and Mexico continued to recognise Maduro.

What about ordinary people?

Even before the latest turmoil, many Venezuelans were struggling to obtain essential items and basic foodstuffs. Hyperinflation, corruption and a fall in oil prices left the government struggling for solutions. Groups such as Unicef warned that children were increasingly malnourished. Many said it was harder to get subsidised food if you were not a government supporter. The UN says more than three million people have fled.

Why is the US involved?

The US has a long history of interfering in the domestic politics of Latin American countries, from Nicaragua to Chile. In the years since the end of World War II, it has repeatedly supported right wing military-led regimes, in preference to socialist or left wing democratically elected governments. In regard to other foreign nations, the US appears to still believe in the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, which originally opposed European colonialism in places such as Latin America. Today, the US considers Latin America its own back yard, and seeks to oppose countries such as Russia and China from developing its interests there.

What about the oil?

Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, at an estimated 296.5 billion barrels. The oil industry was nationalised in 1976, creating the state-run company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). Upon taking office, Chavez fired thousands of workers, replaced them with less-skilled but loyal supporters, and insisted foreign operators enter minority-stake partnerships. Those who refused, among them ComConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corp, left the country. Oil production has declined by as much two-thirds since Chavez was first elected in 1998. In January, the US enlarged sanctions to target PDVSA, part of an attempt to put extra pressure on Maduro. Guardia has said he will reverse nationalisation.

A book released earlier this year by former acting FBI Andrew McCabe quoted Trump as asking intelligence officials in 2017 why the US was not at war with Venezuela. “That’s the country we should be going to war with. They have all that oil and they’re right on our back door.”

How safe is Maduro?

Crucial to Maduro is retaining the support of the military and security services, the senior members of which were appointed by him. The thinking is that unless they believe they have something to gain by giving him up, they will remain loyal. That would mean proving guarantees to them and their families they would not be purged under a new government

What about negotiations?

For several months an international effort led by the European Union, Uruguay, Ecuador and Costa Rica has sought to negotiate for new elections.

While the so-called International Contact Group has sent teams to Caracas to meet with both sides, it has had limited success. Another international body seeking to mediate in the crisis, the so-called Lima Group, which is made up of Latin American nations, has since backed Guaido.

A statement signed by Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay and Peru, on Tuesday urged Venezuela’s military to defect and “cease being instruments of the illegitimate regime for the oppression of the Venezuelan people”.

With Associated Press