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At least three models are predicting that Donald Trump will win re-election in 2020 , a prediction based on combinations of several factors including economic data and incumbent advantage.
The models were compiled for a recent op-ed written by Steven Rattner, who served as a counsel in the Treasury Department during Barack Obama ’s presidency.
According to Mr Rattner, one of the most reliable models is one created by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale University who combines incumbency and gross domestic product growth rates to predict who might win the presidency.
That model apparently predicted Mr Obama’s 2008 popular vote win within a fraction of a percentage point, and was able to get within two-tenths of his 2012 vote share.
But, that model has some flaws, and failed to take into account some of the peculiarities presented by Mr Trump himself. That’s to say, the model did not predict that Mr Trump would lose by 3 million votes — a likely sign that the model did not adequately take into account the American public’s apparent personal distaste for Mr Trump.
The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020Show all 25 1 /25The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Bernie Sanders The Vermont senator has launched a second bid for president after losing out to Hilary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic primaries. He is running on a similar platform of democratic socialist reform
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Joe Biden The former vice president recently faced scrutiny for inappropriate touching of women, but was thought to deal with the criticism well and has since maintained a front runner status in national polling
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Elizabeth Warren The Massachusetts senator is a progressive Democrat, and a major supporter of regulating Wall Street
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Amy Klobuchar Klobuchar is a Minnesota senator who earned praise for her contribution to the Brett Kavanaugh hearings
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Michael Bloomberg Michael Bloomberg, a late addition to the 2020 race, announced his candidacy after months of speculation in November. He has launched a massive ad-buying campaign and issued an apology for the controversial "stop and frisk" programme that adversely impacted minority communities in New York City when he was mayor
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Tulsi Gabbard The Hawaii congresswoman announced her candidacy in January, but has faced tough questions on her past comments on LGBT+ rights and her stance on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Pete Buttigieg The centrist Indiana mayor and war veteran would be the first openly LGBT+ president in American history
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Deval Patrick The former Massachusetts governor launched a late 2020 candidacy and received very little reception. With just a few short months until the first voters flock to the polls, the former governor is running as a centrist and believes he can unite the party's various voting blocs
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Beto O'Rourke The former Texas congressman formally launched his bid for the presidency in March. He ran on a progressive platform, stating that the US is driven by "gross differences in opportunity and outcome"
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Kamala Harris The former California attorney general was introduced to the national stage during Jeff Sessions’ testimony. She has endorsed Medicare-for-all and proposed a major tax-credit for the middle class
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Bill De Blasio The New York mayor announced his bid on 16 May 2019. He emerged in 2013 as a leading voice in the left wing of his party but struggled to build a national profile and has suffered a number of political setbacks in his time as mayor
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Steve Bullock The Montana governor announced his bid on 14 May. He stated "We need to defeat Donald Trump in 2020 and defeat the corrupt system that lets campaign money drown out the people's voice, so we can finally make good on the promise of a fair shot for everyone." He also highlighted the fact that he won the governor's seat in a red [Republican] state
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Cory Booker The New Jersey Senator has focused on restoring kindness and civility in American politics throughout his campaign, though he has failed to secure the same level of support and fundraising as several other senators running for the White House in 2020
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Wayne Messam Mayor of the city of Miramar in the Miami metropolitan area, Wayne Messam said he intended to run on a progressive platform against the "broken" federal government. He favours gun regulations and was a signatory to a letter from some 400 mayors condemning President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Kirsten Gillibrand The New York Senator formally announced her presidential bid in January, saying that “healthcare should be a right, not a privilege”
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: John Delaney The Maryland congressman was the first to launch his bid for presidency, making the announcement in 2017
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Andrew Yang The entrepreneur announced his presidential candidacy by pledging that he would introduce a universal basic income of $1,000 a month to every American over the age of 18
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Julian Castro The former San Antonio mayor announced his candidacy in January and said that his running has a “special meaning” for the Latino community in the US
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Marianne Williamson The author and spiritual adviser has announced her intention to run for president. She had previously run for congress as an independent in 2014 but was unsuccessful
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Eric Swalwell One of the younger candidates, Swalwell has served on multiple committees in the House of Representatives. He intended to make gun control central to his campaign but dropped out after his team said it was clear there was no path to victory
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Seth Moulton A Massachusetts congressman, Moulton is a former US soldier who is best known for trying to stop Nancy Pelosi from becoming speaker of the house. He dropped out of the race after not polling well in key states
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Jay Inslee Inslee has been governor of Washington since 2013. His bid was centred around climate change
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: John Hickenlooper The former governor of Colorado aimed to sell himself as an effective leader who was open to compromise, but failed to make a splash on the national stage
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Tim Ryan Ohio representative Tim Ryan ran on a campaign that hinged on his working class roots, though his messaging did not appear to resonate with voters
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The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Tom Steyer Democratic presidential hopeful billionaire and philanthropist Tom Steyer is a longtime Democratic donor
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In addition to Mr Fair’s model, Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has also analysed several models to find that Mr Trump will likely win in 2020.
Support free-thinking journalism and attend Independent events An analysis of the Electoral College by Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has also found Mr Trump has a good chance of winning re-election.
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