Will Donald Trump go to prison?

Ex-president faces 88 felony counts across four prosecutions as he campaigns for the presidency

Donald Trump faces four criminal indictments in four separate jurisdictions at a time when he is campaigning to take the White House.

His first criminal trial in New York is now drawing to a close, with the former president staring down the possibility of a conviction on charges connected to a hush money payment to a porn star.

Mr Trump is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal a secret $130,000 payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential campaign to silence her over an alleged sexual encounter in 2006. Mr Trump denies the affair and has pleaded not guilty to the charges.

During the trial, jurors heard from a parade of colorful witnesses, from Ms Daniels to Mr Trump’s former “fixer” Michael Cohen to ex-National Inquirer publisher David Pecker and former Trump White House aides Hope Hicks and Madeleine Westerhout.

So could Mr Trump go to prison? And what potential prison time is he facing in his three other criminal cases?

The ‘hush money’ case – up to 20 years

In the hush money case, the 34 charges have been “stepped up” from misdemeanors to class E felonies because prosecutors allege the crimes were carried out in an effort to commit or conceal another crime.

Each of the 34 counts carries a maximum sentence of four years in prison, however New York imposes a 20-year sentencing cap for this type of offense.

However, such sentences are usually only doled out with mitigating circumstances, like previous felony convictions or based on the seriousness of the crime.

Former US president Donald Trump sits for his trial at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on Tuesday 21 May 2024 (Mark Peterson/Reuters)

Given that Mr Trump has no prior criminal record and the alleged crimes are non-violent, it is likely that he would face no jail time. Instead, New York Justice Juan Merchan could impose other penalties such as fines, probation or conditional discharge in lieu of jail time.

The classified documents case – up to 450 years

In one of two federal criminal cases, Mr Trump is charged with willfully retaining secrets and obstructing justice over his alleged mishandling of classified documents after leaving the White House.

In August 2022, the FBI raided Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida, and found boxes of classified documents that he should have returned to the National Archives.

In that case, the former president faces a maximum of 10 years in prison per count of willfully retaining secrets and 20 years per count of obstructing justice.

Donald Trump appears alongside his aide and co-defendant Walt Nauta and attorneys Chris Kise and Todd Blanche in Miami, Florida, in June 2023 (Reuters)

While the latter offence comes with a higher maximum sentence, it is the former about which Mr Trump should be more worried. Convictions of wilful and/or reckless retention of classified information frequently result in prison sentences of several years or more. Mr Trump faces more than 30 of those charges.

The trial was provisionally set for 20 May, although Judge Aileen Cannon subsequently suspended it indefinitely and pretrial hearings relating to it continue to be dominated by baffling orders and courtroom spats.

The federal election interference case – up to 55 years

The Justice Department’s second case against Mr Trump accuses him with efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election in his favor.

In this case, he faces charges of conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy against Americans’ right to vote in free elections and attempting to block the certification of the election results by summoning a mob to attack the US Capitol on 6 January 2021.

Should he be convicted on either point, he faces steep maximum prison sentences for each count, in particular the obstruction of proceeding charges, which carry 20-year maximum terms.

Donald Trump claimed he witnessed ‘filth’ and ’decay’ in Washington DC after his arraignment in early August 2023 (Getty)

The trial, in this case, was provisionally set for 4 March but it has been plagued by delays while Mr Trump’s “presidential immunity” argument plays out before the US Supreme Court.

The Georgia racketeering case – up to 76.5 years

In Georgia, Mr Trump is charged with his efforts to overturn the 2020 election in the state.

Donald Trump appears in a police booking mugshot released by the Fulton County Sheriff’s Office in Georgia in August 2023 (Reuters)

The sprawling RICO case, brought by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis against Mr Trump and a string of his allies, is unique in that it is the only case where the charges carry minimum prison terms.

The most serious felony charge – of violating Georgia’s RICO statute (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organisations) – carries a minimum prison term of five years, with a maximum of 20 behind bars.