Mueller's rush to sentence Trump associates - an unusual way to treat cooperating witnesses - suggests Russia investigation is ending

Analysis: To jettison those who were in Trump’s close circle suggests the special counsel may have his case laid out already

Amid the whirlwind of hearings, guilty pleas and sentencing memos that has been Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe in the last few weeks, an unusual pattern has emerged.

One of Mueller’s biggest successes as his team investigate 2016 election meddling and possible collusion between Moscow and Donald Trump’s campaign team, has been his ability to get former associates of the president to “flip” and cooperate with him.

Among the more high-profile are Trump’s former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, former White House national security advisor Michael Flynn, and former campaign foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos. They have all pleaded guilty to charges in some form and pledged to work with Mueller.

But the curious thing comes with the speed at which Mueller’s team has rushed to sentencing. Papadopoulos has already been released from a two-week jail term and Cohen was handed just over three years for a number of finance charges – and lying to Congress – earlier this week. Flynn will be sentenced for lying to federal investigators in the next few days.

A prosecutor would normally leave those cooperating to last for sentencing, leaving the door open for possible testimony in court before any punishment is finalised. Indeed, Mueller has praised Flynn for his “valuable” help and Cohen as well. Meanwhile Cohen’s legal team have said more of what he knows about the president could come after Mueller’s report is finished.

“There will come a time after Mr Mueller is done with his work that Michael Cohen will be sitting in front of a microphone before a congressional committee and what he has to say about the truth will be judged by the members of Congress listening,” spokesman Lanny Davis has said. Trump has denied wrongdoing in any of the investigations currently being undertaken.

And it is not like Mueller cannot walk the traditional route. He has in one case: Rick Gates. Gates pleaded guilty to financial crimes as part of lobbying work in Ukraine with former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort. Gates, who worked under Manafort during the Trump campaign, testified at trial against his former boss and is still awaiting sentencing. Mueller’s team has until 15 January to tell a judge if they are ready to move forward with that.

One explanation for the unusual moves is that “the accounts of those cooperating witnesses will appear in a written report, not in court” according to Robert Ray, a former independent counsel on the Whitewater investigation into real estate dealings of Bill and Hillary Clinton.

That would mean that Mueller’s report is nearly done and Ray told The Washington Post he expects Mueller to deliver a report on his findings in the first three months of 2019.

“Whatever those individuals have done for the special counsel investigation, there [appears] no further use for them,” Ray said. “If there were any contemplation of using them at trial, you would sentence them later. And the only conclusion I can draw from all that is that we are nearing the end.”

Mueller’s treatment of Manafort points to that as well. Manafort was convicted of eight financial crimes in Virginia in August at the trial where Gates testified. Jurors could not reach a decision on 10 other charges. Manafort then reached a deal with Mueller’s team in September to avoid a second trial in Washington DC, offering cooperation for the dismissal of the 10 charges and a guilty plea on others.

But, in another highly unusual move, Mueller’s team blew apart that plea deal in late November, accusing Manafort of lying to investigators.

“A breach [in the plea agreement] relieves the government of any obligations it has under the agreement, including its agreement to a reduction in the sentencing guidelines for acceptance of responsibility, but leaves intact all the obligations of the defendant as well as his guilty pleas,” prosecutors said in court documents. Manafort has denied being untruthful.

To make such a move, Mueller is likely sure he has whatever Manafort brought to the table as part of the Russia investigation corroborated by other sources, or several statements from others that contradict what Manafort has said. To jettison someone who was in Trump’s close circle suggests that Mueller may have his case laid out already.

“This was never going to be the Paul Manafort show,” Patrick Cotter, a former assistant US attorney in the Eastern District of New York now in private practice in Chicago told USA Today. “He was going to be part of a mosaic, and his piece didn’t fit because he’s a liar. The rest of the mosaic is still there.”

Also this week, Mueller’s team hit back at suggestions from Flynn’s lawyers that Trump’s first national security advisor was not told lying to the FBI was a crime during an interview in January 2017. Mueller has suggested possibly as little as no jail time for Flynn thanks to his extensive cooperation with the Russia probe, but the criticism is a message – don’t lie to me.

If Mueller is wrapping up soon, the cases of Flynn, Manafort and Cohen are laid out in a way that will be clear to any more people who wish to cooperate. You can either cooperate fully, like Flynn, and get little to no jail time. You can cooperate slightly less than fully, like Cohen did with New York prosecutors, and get a few years. Or you can not cooperate, like Manafort and face a decade or more in prison.

The choice is out there, but it looks like it won’t be there much longer.