Midterms 2018: Trump says it's not his fault if Republicans lose Congress

‘Blue wave’ expected to sweep away Republican dominance in the House

Donald Trump on the campaign trail in Iowa earlier this month (Getty)

“I don’t believe anybody’s ever had this kind of an impact,” Donald Trump has said of himself and the effect his campaign blitz has had for Republican candidates ahead of America’s upcoming congressional elections.

The president has been campaigning aggressively, attending a torrent of rallies designed to fire up Republican voters and boost his party’s chances of keeping control of the Senate and the House of Representatives

Despite his efforts, he faces the prospect of a bruising electoral defeat with a “blue wave” expected to sweep away the Republican dominance in the House, bringing an end to the triple-headed Republican power-hold in Washington.

But Mr Trump has already absolved himself of any blame if he does lose his majority on 6 November, saying that even though he has tried to help, as he is not running himself, people may not turn up to vote.

“I’m not running,” he told the Associated Press. “I mean, there are many people that have said to me ... ‘I will never ever go and vote in the midterms because you’re not running and I don’t think you like Congress.”’

He added: “Well, I do like Congress.”

The Democrats need to take both congressional houses in order to regain any control of the US political narrative and block the Trump administration’s policy programmes.

The big prize would be the Senate – control of which would allow Democrats to block Mr Trump’s Supreme Court picks and Cabinet appointments.

But Republicans remain confident they will retain control of the Senate – and with good reason – the Grand Old Party (GOP), is defending 26 seats – far more than the Democrats’ nine which are up for grabs.

It is far more likely the Republicans will struggle to retain their House majority. Currently, there are 240 seats held by Republicans, and 195 held by Democrats. The winning party must take 218 to have a majority – meaning the Democrats require a net gain of 24 seats.

Though this sounds like a tall order, Democrat confidence has been boosted by the fact a record 39 Republicans are vacating their seats at the 2018 midterms – many of whom were anti-Trump. Meanwhile 27 Democrat-held seats are not being contested by their incumbents.

If the president does lose his majority in the house, it could pave the way for Democrats to pursue further investigations into Mr Trump – including into his long-hidden tax returns.

Impeachment may be what many hope the midterm elections might lead to, but this is a stretch – it requires a two-thirds majority in the senate, meaning a significant number of Republicans would have to turn on the president, even if the Democrats somehow won every seat up for grabs.

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Whatever the efforts of Democrats seeking to topple the President are in the wake of the vote, Mr Trump has said he will “handle it very well.”

Earlier this week Mr Trump claimed the Republican midterm campaign rallies were “bigger than they have ever been before, including the 2016 election,” which took him to the White House.

If the Republicans do lose control of the House, it would be entirely in keeping with recent US political history and unlikely spell disaster for Mr Trump. Most presidents who lose one or even both houses in their first midterms go on to re-election – including Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon.

Herbert Hoover was the last president who lost a majority in Congress during his first term and then lost re-election – and that was in 1933 as the US was picking up the pieces of the stock market crash. In comparison, today’s US economy is in rude health.